The U.S. equity markets traded at all-time highs on the last full trading week of the year. The market’s soaring prices were propelled to record levels by accommodative monetary policy, positive news on the U.S. – China trade deal, a strong consumer, and unwinding of recession fears. Final GDP 3rd quarter numbers were also released on Friday and were not revised, showing economic growth growing at a respectable 2.1%. Overall, the U.S. economy is in good shape and the recent stock market gains are a vote of confidence, supporting that narrative.
Homebuilders remain confident and housing starts surprised to the upside earlier in the year. Most economists had predicted the 10-year U.S. Treasury would end 2019 at above 3.000%. The plunge lower in rates (10-year U.S. Treasury currently at ~1.92%) has been a big factor in spurring home purchases and refinances, as well as underpinning the surge in equities and other asset prices. If rates remain low, we would expect the consumer to remain bullish and continue to spend on autos, homes, and other high-cost durable goods.
Banks remain aggressive on pricing and mortgage banks continue to serve the demand by self-employed borrowers who face challenges documenting their income. Rates are low and should be locked-in. Continued positive data both in the U.S. and abroad could lift rates higher. Then again, maybe they won’t.