Get fresh weekly insights on rate direction and financial news from Damon Germanides,
Insignia’s co-founder, with over 20 years experience in the California mortgage marketplace.
Rising Geopolitical Risks and Evolving Economic Signals
Market attention is expected to intensify over the weekend as geopolitical tensions rise between Israel and Iran. Equities dropped on Friday following reports of Israeli strikes on key nuclear and strategic sites. Oil prices and bond yields increased, while U.S. Treasuries—typically considered a safe haven—also rallied. Despite yields soaring elsewhere, the rally in Treasuries indicates ongoing market concerns about inflation, the growing U.S. debt burden, and a weakening dollar.
Markets have been relatively calm over the past 45 days, having digested tariff developments, but this new escalation could trigger renewed volatility. Any sustained disruption to oil markets could make energy prices more costly, exacerbating upward pressure on bond yields.
On the inflation front, both CPI and PPI came in lower than expected. However, some analysts suggest the soft prints may reflect pre-buying of goods ahead of tariff implementation. June’s data will provide more clarity. With inflation readings cooling and jobs data remaining stable—but not overly strong—there’s a growing case for the Fed to begin seriously discussing rate cuts. The upcoming Fed meeting will be closely watched, particularly as the White House continues to push for lower rates. The potential conflict in the Middle East only adds complexity to the Fed’s decision-making.
Higher interest rates are progressively weighing on real estate investors, business owners, and private equity. Many investment deals no longer pencil out once adjusted for today’s cost of capital. This is evident across housing, multifamily, and construction financing. Home prices begin to soften as inventory lingers, with lenders tightening guidelines. While prime borrowers still secure approvals, others are being pushed into the non-QM or private credit markets.
Watch for rising auto loan and credit card delinquencies as early signs of consumer strain. Despite strong public market performance, the combined effects of inflation, elevated rates, and a gradually slowing economy take its toll on everyday Americans.
These are the opinions of the author. For financial advice, please talk to your CPA or financial professional.
A better-than-expected May jobs report pushed equities and bond yields higher. An in-depth review of the data shows signs of slowing in certain areas of the economy, yet the report largely dismissed concerns of an imminent downturn. For mortgage markets, however, the report was not welcome news—odds of a Fed rate cut in June or July dropped sharply. While there is still hope for a September cut, the continued strength of both the U.S. economy and labor market reinforces the “higher for longer” thesis on interest rates.
Meanwhile, the “Big Beautiful Bill” is not being well received by bond traders, particularly on the long end of the curve. We’ve consistently expressed concern over the nation’s unchecked spending and structural deficits, both of which we believe are key drivers behind rising yields. Inflation appears temporarily subdued, despite upward risks from new tariffs and tighter immigration policies, and U.S. interest rates remain elevated relative to those of other developed countries. From our perspective, this indicates more than just inflation risk, it represents the market’s concern over America’s growing debt burden and lack of political resolve to address it.
In housing, the story remains the same: low inventory, high prices, and a cost of living that’s straining affordability across income levels. What was once primarily a challenge for lower-income households is now affecting the middle and upper classes as well. That said, one bright spot is emerging; A-paper lenders are beginning to reprice more competitively, aided by the steepness of the yield curve. For top-tier borrowers, this could result in ARM rates dipping below 5% in the near term. Unfortunately, borrowers reliant on alternative loan products—typically structured as 30-year fixed loans—may not reap this benefit, as such rates remain stubbornly high.
All eyes now turn to next week’s CPI and PPI prints. For residential real estate to regain momentum, the market will need a catalyst—either lower prices or lower interest rates. Stay tuned and make sure you’re subscribed to Insignia Mortgage’s Market Commentary for the latest updates and rates.
Join Damon Germanides at the 2025 IMN Non-QM Forum in Dana Point
Insignia Mortgage is proud to announce that our co-founder, Damon Germanides, will be speaking at the prestigious IMN Non-QM & Non-Agency Mortgage Forum, taking place June 5, 2025, at the Waldorf Astoria Monarch Beach Resort & Club in Dana Point, California.
A recognized leader in complex, non-agency lending solutions, Damon will be sharing valuable insights during the session: “New Product Innovation: What Does the Market Need?”
As the mortgage industry continues to evolve, this panel will explore the next wave of lending products designed to meet the unique needs of today’s borrowers—including real estate investors, self-employed individuals, and high-net-worth clients. Drawing on his extensive experience at Insignia Mortgage, one of the nation’s top-performing boutique mortgage brokerages, Damon will offer real-world perspective on where the non-QM market is headed and how lenders can stay ahead of the curve.
Why Attend?
Learn from thought leaders in non-QM mortgage lending
Get first-hand insights on product trends, risk management, and borrower behavior
Network with top professionals, lenders, and capital markets experts
Hear directly from a broker who’s helped originate over $6 billion in non-agency loans
📍 Event: IMN Non-QM & Non-Agency Mortgage Forum 📅 Date: June 5, 2025 📌 Location: Waldorf Astoria Monarch Beach, Dana Point, CA 🔗 Register here:https://lnkd.in/dtAGwj2m
Whether you’re a lender, capital markets professional, or real estate investor, this session is a must-attend for anyone navigating the future of alternative mortgage products.
Don’t miss it — reserve your spot today and connect with Damon Germanides live at Dana Point!
Since our last update, financial markets have been agitated by heightened volatility, driven by renewed tariff announcements. Growth-sensitive equities were hit hard following Liberation Day, while bonds—typically a safe haven in turbulent markets—barely moved. Such a muted bond response highlights a deeper concern over the United States’ ballooning debt. With over $4 billion in daily interest expense, investors are demanding higher yields to compensate for increased risk, making this a “today” problem instead of a “future” one.
Further compounding uncertainty are unresolved trade policies, a Federal Reserve reluctant to lower interest rates, and the potential for a one-time price reset once tariff clarity emerges. These dynamics are weighing heavily on both consumer sentiment and business investment, causing noticeable delays in capital deployment.
While certain soft indicators point to a fatigued consumer, the labor market remains resilient. This creates a policy dilemma for the Fed—why cut rates in the face of solid job data and risk fueling inflation? Nonetheless, rising delinquencies on auto loans and credit cards suggest that many Americans are feeling financial pressure despite headline employment strength.
The real estate market, and housing in particular, is experiencing the consequences of this macro backdrop. After a decade of strong appreciation, home prices appear to be leveling off. Affordability challenges persist, with many potential buyers unable to qualify for conventional financing. Even as banks offer competitive pricing on traditional loans, borrowers are increasingly opting for creative, non-traditional solutions—despite the higher cost.
Client feedback continues to reflect a difficult business climate. Many are accessing home equity through cash-out refinances—either to fund new home purchases, support business operations, or consolidate higher-interest debt. As a result, the bulk of today’s lending activity is concentrated in nuanced and bespoke mortgage products that provide the flexibility today’s borrowers require.
Mortgage rate surveys support the view that lenders are aggressively competing for a limited number of qualified prospects. A sampling of current rates across various loan types (for illustrative purposes only) is shown below:
Private bank loans: Starting at 5.375%
Boutique bank loans: Starting at 6.125%
Profit and loss-based loans: Starting at 6.25%
Bank statement loans: Starting at 6.500%
DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans: Starting at 6.875%
Bridge loans: Starting at 8.500%
View the latest interest rates and subscribe to Insignia Mortgage’s Weekly Market Commentary by Top Originator, Damon Germanides.
In the dynamic world of real estate finance, consistency and performance aren’t just admirable—they’re essential. For over a decade, Insignia Mortgage has exemplified both, earning top-tier recognition on the Scotsman Guide’s Top Originators list every single year. In 2025, the tradition continues—with multiple Insignia originators securing elite national rankings across categories.
Why the Scotsman Guide Matters
Since 2010, the Scotsman Guide has served as the industry standard for mortgage originator rankings. These rankings are based on verified loan volume and production metrics across key categories like Non-QM lending, brokered loans, and refinances. Earning a place on this list isn’t just a badge of honor—it’s a signal to real estate professionals that they’re working with the best in the business.
Insignia’s 2025 Highlights: A National Benchmark
This year, Chris Furie and Damon Germanides, co-founders of Insignia Mortgage, once again achieved standout rankings:
Chris Furie:
#8 – Top Mortgage Brokers
#4 – Top Non-QM Originators
#32 – Top Refinance Originators
Damon Germanides:
#9 – Top Mortgage Brokers
#5 – Top Non-QM Originators
#18 – Top Refinance Originators
The rest of the Insignia Mortgage team are also prominently featured:
Romy Nourafchan: #29 Top Broker, #139 Top Refinance, #153 Top HELOC
Neil Patel: #53 Top Broker, #22 Top Non-QM Originator
Scott Sealey: Ranked #235 among Top Brokers nationally, first year on the Top Originator List
This level of performance is rare and reflects a commitment to excellence, creativity, and an unrivaled understanding of the residential mortgage market.
Founders Who Lead by Example
Insignia Mortgage is more than a company—it’s the result of decades of leadership, vision, and resilience.
Chris Furie, with over 35 years of experience, has built a reputation as one of the most knowledgeable and trusted professionals in Southern California real estate finance. His work has helped redefine what it means to deliver concierge-level mortgage advisory services for affluent and complex borrowers.
Damon Germanides, now in his 21st year in the business, has distinguished himself through his expertise in structuring customized Non-QM and jumbo mortgage solutions. His focus on precision, transparency, and long-term relationships makes him a favorite among investors and financial advisors alike.
The Insignia Advantage
What sets Insignia Mortgage apart is its deep bench of talent and its boutique-style approach to client service. The firm specializes in:
Non-QM and jumbo loan solutions for complex borrower profiles
Tailored loan structures for self-employed, high-net-worth individuals
Fast, reliable closings backed by deep lender relationships
A high-touch, consultative experience from application to funding
As independent mortgage brokers, the Insignia team isn’t tied to any single lender or underwriting standard. That flexibility translates into more options—and better outcomes—for clients navigating competitive real estate markets.
Trusted by Investors, Realtors, and Financial Advisors
Real estate investors, luxury agents, and high-end developers repeatedly turn to Insignia for one reason: results. The firm’s ability to structure loans that other providers can’t—or won’t—consider makes it a powerful strategic partner in today’s market.
Whether financing a multi-unit property, leveraging a portfolio of assets, or optimizing tax strategies through mortgage structuring, Insignia brings clarity and confidence to every deal.
A Legacy Still in the Making… Let’s Grow Together.
Being named to the Scotsman Guide Top Originators list for over ten consecutive years is a reflection of talent, trust, and tireless dedication. But at Insignia Mortgage, the team isn’t resting on past achievements—they’re raising the bar, year after year.
For investors, agents, and borrowers seeking elite mortgage solutions, Insignia Mortgage remains the gold standard.
Interested in working with one of the nation’s top-ranked mortgage teams?
At Insignia Mortgage, we pride ourselves on delivering exceptional service and expertise in every transaction—and that commitment is exemplified by our own Scott Sealey. Insignia Mortgage has ranked on Scotsman Guide’s Top Originators list for the past decade, and we’re so pleased to celebrate Scott’s inaugural success this 2025 as a Top Mortgage Broker.
With over 30 years of experience in the mortgage industry, Scott has built a reputation for solving even the most complex loan scenarios. His journey began in 1992 as a loan officer at Great Western Bank, and since then, he has remained dedicated to helping clients—regardless of the size or scope of the loan.
In 2024, Scott’s consistent performance and client-first approach earned him recognition in the Scotsman Guide, where he was honored for closing over $30 million in loans. It’s a testament to his deep industry knowledge, strategic thinking, and, most importantly, his ability to communicate clearly with clients, referral partners, and investors alike.
Scott’s success reflects the values we uphold at Insignia Mortgage: personalized service, expert guidance, and a relentless drive to deliver results. We’re proud to have him on our team and look forward to seeing what he accomplishes next.
The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff announcements sent global equity and bond markets into a tailspin, driving the CNN Fear & Greed Index down to a 4. We are now at levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis or the shock of COVID. While the current backdrop may not be as severe, investor panic is evident. Since World War II, global growth has relied on comparative economics — countries focusing on what they produce best and trading for the rest. But persistent U.S. trade deficits have led this administration to push for a more level playing field, targeting tariffs and VAT-related pricing disadvantages overseas. The scale of the proposals, however, rattled bond markets and led to a temporary pullback in policy.
Mortgage rates dipped briefly as the 10-year Treasury yield touched below 4%, but that rally was short-lived. The reversal wasn’t driven by inflation data — CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected — but rather by fears of tariff-induced inflation. Manufacturers are now in a bind and consumer confidence is weakening, which makes passing on higher input costs difficult. As a result, we face potential margin compression, weaker earnings, and continued market volatility.
One bright spot for consumers: oil has dropped below $60/barrel, easing some cost-of-living pressures. And while equity markets have pulled back roughly 10% from recent highs, this correction may be a healthy repricing after an extended period of overvaluation.
In the housing market, expect:
Price adjustments as buyers grow more cautious
Cash-out refinances by self-employed borrowers seeking liquidity
Tighter underwriting as lenders brace for inflation, recession risk, and asset repricing
More loan applications moving to the non-QM or private credit space due to tightened credit box by big banks (bank statement loans, no-income verification loans, DSCR loans, bridge loans).
On the interest rate front, Wall Street is split — from zero to four cuts forecasted this year. Based on borrower sentiment and softening labor trends, we believe the Fed may deliver 1–2 rate cuts. Consumers are watching their wallets, and business owners are becoming more defensive.
If the Fed does ease later this year, it could bring much-needed relief to mortgage rates — a welcomed boost for the housing sector.
A better-than-expected March jobs report took a back seat to the volatile market response following the latest tariff announcements. Equity markets are experiencing heightened volatility as strategists attempt to assess how U.S. tariffs—and retaliatory measures—will unfold in the coming weeks. One big potential consequence of a trade war is triggering a global recession. There is growing concern that a trade war could lead to stagflation—a slowing economy paired with rising costs.
It remains unclear whether the goal of the tariffs is to bring other nations to the negotiating table for improved trade agreements with the U.S. or if they represent a more permanent shift in trade policy. We hope for the former and that these tariffs serve as leverage to secure better trade deals, ultimately benefiting U.S. trade relationships.
High Volatility
The market’s current anxiety is best exemplified by the VIX above 40 and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index at a reading of 4, which is an extreme fear level. While it’s uncertain whether last week’s developments fully justify this level of negativity, there is a sense that automated trading is amplifying market swings. Wall Street has a reputation for punishing retail investors during periods of heightened volatility.
A look at the 2-year Treasury note suggests the market is pricing in upcoming Fed rate cuts. Despite the Fed Chair downplaying this possibility, the probability of cuts appears to be rising. Long-term inflation expectations are also falling. Significant equity losses and weakening consumer confidence weigh heavy on sentiment. We expect inflation to decline rapidly, driven by reduced government spending and a shift in consumer behavior following major wealth erosion. Lower interest rates are likely to follow.
Positive Outlook for Residential Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are improving across the board, benefiting from equity market volatility as banks reprice downward. Many loan products are now offering rates below 5%, which should enhance affordability for homebuyers and incentivize refinancing, particularly for cash-out borrowers. Sellers may also be more willing to reduce home prices amid recession concerns, a desire to raise cash, or a need to lower housing expenses.
Caution for Commercial Real Estate
Unlike the residential market, commercial real estate may not see the same relief. Widening spreads—particularly in high-yield markets—are concerning and should be closely monitored. Riskier segments of the commercial real estate market may face higher borrowing costs and diminished investor appetite if spreads continue to widen and delinquencies rise.
Stocks ended the week in positive territory after another period of volatility. The Federal Reserve maintained its stance on interest rates, opting for a “wait and see” approach instead of initiating rate cuts. Key takeaways from the Fed’s latest commentary suggest that the economy remains stable, with a slight expected increase in unemployment—though not significant enough to justify a major policy shift. The Fed continues to project positive GDP growth for the year.
One area of concern was the Fed’s discussion on tariffs and their inflationary impact. While tariffs may introduce one-time cost increases for certain goods, it’s worth noting that imports account for approximately 15% of the total U.S. GDP. As a result, the overall impact on inflation may be less severe than some forecasts suggest. That said, tariff uncertainties continue to create market disruptions, though the broader U.S. economy may absorb these effects more constructively than many anticipate.
Oil, Bonds, and Interest Rates
The ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia and its potential to resolve the conflict threatens to put downward pressure on oil prices. Historically, bond yields and oil prices have moved in tandem, meaning that a decline in oil could contribute to lower interest rates. With oil as a fundamental input cost across multiple industries, any drop in energy prices would also help temper inflationary pressures.
Breakdown of U.S. Treasury Debt: The composition of outstanding U.S. Treasury debt is as follows:
$6.4 trillion in Treasury bills (maturing in one year or less)
$14.7 trillion in Treasury notes (maturing in 2-10 years)
$4.9 trillion in Treasury bonds (20- and 30-year maturities)
$2.0 trillion in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
$0.63 trillion in Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)
With a significant portion of this debt rolling over from historically low interest rates, concerns around the U.S. interest expense and rising deficit spending are intensifying. Many economists and bond traders believe the nation is approaching a tipping point, where ongoing deficit growth and increasing debt-servicing costs may become unsustainable.
Housing Market & Economic Indicators to Watch
February’s existing home sales came in stronger than expected, a positive sign for those operating in the existing home sales market. After nearly two years of muted activity, there are early indications that homebuyers may be gradually returning. While better home sales support a strong economy, other signals suggest the economy is slowing. Mixed signals make forecasting difficult.
Given the uncertain economic environment, we are closely monitoring the following key indicators to assess the direction of interest rates and overall market conditions:
Oil prices – A leading indicator of inflationary pressures
2-year vs. 10-year Treasury yield spread – A key gauge of economic sentiment and recession risk
Weekly unemployment claims – A real-time measure of labor market health
Automobile loan delinquencies – A potential warning sign of consumer financial stress
Housing starts – A crucial indicator of real estate market momentum
All eyes now turn to next week’s CPI and PPI prints. For residential real estate to regain momentum, the market will need a catalyst—either lower prices or lower interest rates. Stay tuned and make sure you’re subscribed to Insignia Mortgage’s Market Commentary for the latest updates and rates.
These are the opinions of the author. For financial advice, please talk to your CPA or financial professional.
(1) Disclosures
(1) No Tax Return loans and foreign national loan products require other forms of income documentation and asset verification in lieu of tax returns. Not all applicants will qualify. Some products we offer may have a higher interest rate, more points or more fees than other products requiring more extensive or different documentation. (2) Minimum FICO, reserve, and other requirements apply. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. Rates, points, APRs and programs are subject to change without notice. Loan to values (LTV) are based on appraised value. Actual closing times will vary based on borrower qualifications and loan terms. All loans are subject to credit approval. (3) With an interest-only mortgage payment, you will not pay down the loan's principal balance during the interest-only period. Once the interest-only period ends, your payments will increase to pay back the principal and interest. Rates are subject to increase over the life of the loan. Contact your Insignia Mortgage, Inc. loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the interest-only period ends. (4) With an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), once the fixed rate period ends, the loan payment will adjust after an initial period and then adjust on a regular basis as set forth in the loan documents. For example, a “3/1” loan will have an interest adjustment 3 years after the loan closes and every 12 months thereafter. Also, the loan will be subject to annual and lifetime adjustment caps. Contact your Insignia Mortgage loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the fixed rate period of the loan ends. (5) Insignia Mortgage, Inc., is a real estate broker licensed by the CA Department of Real Estate, DRE #01969620, NMLS #1277691
(2) Disclosures
(1) Minimum FICO, reserve, and other requirements apply. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. Rates, points, APRs and programs are subject to change without notice. Actual closing times will vary based on borrower qualifications and loan terms. All loans are subject to credit approval. (2) “Loan to Cost” (LTC) is defined as the acquisition price of the property plus the cost to build as determined by a bank appraisal. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. (3) With an interest-only mortgage payment, you will not pay down the loan's principal balance during the interest-only period. Once the interest-only period ends, your payments will increase to pay back the principal and interest. Rates are subject to increase over the life of the loan. Contact your Insignia Mortgage, Inc. loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the interest-only period ends. (4) With an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), the loan payment will adjust after an initial period and then adjust on a regular basis as set forth in the loan documents. For example, a “3/1” loan will have an interest adjustment 3 years after the loan closes and every 12 months thereafter. Also, the loan will be subject to annual and lifetime adjustment caps. Contact your Insignia Mortgage loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the fixed rate period of the loan ends. (5) Insignia Mortgage, Inc., is a real estate broker licensed by the CA Department of Real Estate, DRE #01969620, NMLS #1277691.
Disclosures
(1) Disclosures
(1) No Tax Return loans and foreign national loan products require other forms of income documentation and asset verification in lieu of tax returns. Not all applicants will qualify. Some products we offer may have a higher interest rate, more points or more fees than other products requiring more extensive or different documentation. (2) Minimum FICO, reserve, and other requirements apply. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. Rates, points, APRs and programs are subject to change without notice. Loan to values (LTV) are based on appraised value. Actual closing times will vary based on borrower qualifications and loan terms. All loans are subject to credit approval. (3) With an interest-only mortgage payment, you will not pay down the loan's principal balance during the interest-only period. Once the interest-only period ends, your payments will increase to pay back the principal and interest. Rates are subject to increase over the life of the loan. Contact your Insignia Mortgage, Inc. loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the interest-only period ends. (4) With an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), once the fixed rate period ends, the loan payment will adjust after an initial period and then adjust on a regular basis as set forth in the loan documents. For example, a “3/1” loan will have an interest adjustment 3 years after the loan closes and every 12 months thereafter. Also, the loan will be subject to annual and lifetime adjustment caps. Contact your Insignia Mortgage loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the fixed rate period of the loan ends. (5) Insignia Mortgage, Inc., is a real estate broker licensed by the CA Department of Real Estate, DRE #01969620, NMLS #1277691
(2) Disclosures
(1) Minimum FICO, reserve, and other requirements apply. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. Rates, points, APRs and programs are subject to change without notice. Actual closing times will vary based on borrower qualifications and loan terms. All loans are subject to credit approval. (2) “Loan to Cost” (LTC) is defined as the acquisition price of the property plus the cost to build as determined by a bank appraisal. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. (3) With an interest-only mortgage payment, you will not pay down the loan's principal balance during the interest-only period. Once the interest-only period ends, your payments will increase to pay back the principal and interest. Rates are subject to increase over the life of the loan. Contact your Insignia Mortgage, Inc. loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the interest-only period ends. (4) With an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), the loan payment will adjust after an initial period and then adjust on a regular basis as set forth in the loan documents. For example, a “3/1” loan will have an interest adjustment 3 years after the loan closes and every 12 months thereafter. Also, the loan will be subject to annual and lifetime adjustment caps. Contact your Insignia Mortgage loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the fixed rate period of the loan ends. (5) Insignia Mortgage, Inc., is a real estate broker licensed by the CA Department of Real Estate, DRE #01969620, NMLS #1277691.
Disclosure
Insignia Mortgage corporate NMLS #1277691 and DRE #01969620
