Positive comments about trade negotiations with China from the White House on Thursday and Friday sent the equity markets on a tear at the expense of bonds. Rates rose as optimism for a trade deal increased. The markets seem to think at least a partial trade deal may be in the works this time. If a deal is inked, it will be an ongoing positive for stocks and will certainly push interest rates higher.
Earlier in the week, the Fed Chairman spoke about his committee’s view on the economy. While the Fed sees the economy slowing, for the moment there are no signs of a recession on the horizon. The Fed reiterated it will do whatever necessary to keep the economic expansion going.
Mortgage rates have also risen this week. As we have written previously, our position continues to be that loans should be locked in when the 10-year Treasury is below 2.00%. We continue to hold this view, especially as the 10-year Treasury yield has moved off of 1.500% and is trading near 1.800%.
In another volatile week in the markets, the September jobs report helped soothe recession fears with a report that came in close to estimates. After a poor ISM reading (Institute of Supply Management) and service sector reading earlier in the week, some forecasters were fearing a terrible jobs number. We are happy to report that this not come to fruition. While we are certain that volatility will be a given, it is hard to argue that a recession is on the horizon considering the very low 3.500% unemployment rate.
The September jobs report was solid for a number of reasons. First, the market was primed to expect a major dud. Secondly, there were upward revisions from the past previous reports (i.e. there have been even more people working). Thirdly, unemployment dipped to a 50-year low and the U-6 reading, which includes those working part-time and those “discouraged” workers who’ve stopped job-hunting, dipped to 6.9%. Finally, wage inflation is under control which puts a lid on bond yields.
Housing has rebounded, and low-interest rates are boosting mortgage applications. Lower monthly housing payments free money up in consumers’ budgets, which can be spent on other goods and services, which helps the overall economy.
With the September jobs report behind us, and the 10-year Treasury yielding around 1.51%, we are recommending locking-in loans at this level. While rates could go lower, it is hard to imagine a <1% 10-year Treasury yield for the moment, given the current generally healthy state of the U.S. economy.
Mortgage bonds had another good week as interest rates remain low. This week served up several market-moving headlines highlighted by impeachment headlines, positive news on the U.S.- China trade talks, and good housing numbers. Inflation picked up a touch, with the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE, ticking up to 1.8% annualized inflation rate from a previous reading of 1.6%. However, this annual rate of inflation is still below the Fed’s 2% target and for the moment a non-threat to the bond market. Inflation and economic expectations for the future are what drive longer-dated bonds.
Next week will be a big week with the September jobs report. Given the slowdown in manufacturing and the recent lower reading on consumer confidence, we will be watching the jobs report with much interest. The U.S. economy has been resilient through the present moment and is the envy of the developed world. The big question has been how long can the U.S. continue to outperform other large economies. The jobs report will shed some important light on this question.
In housing news, the National Association of REALTORS® reported a pick up in homes under contract, thanks to lower interest rates. With interest rates near all-time lows, we continue to believe that locking-in interest rates are the way to go as playing the market is simply too risky, especially with lenders near capacity.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as expected, lowered short term lending rates by .25%. The effect on equity and bond markets was muted as the 10-year Treasury closed right under 1.73% for the week. Stocks closed down a touch on Friday. The Fed also opined on the state of the U.S. economy and confirmed that the job picture was good, inflation was under control, and that the worry was on manufacturing data which has slowed considerably. However, given the strength of consumer spending and the small uptick in wage inflation, the Fed does not seem to see a looming recession on the horizon.
Further supporting the no recession thesis, there has been a rise in housing permits and good data on existing home sales. With 7 million-plus more job openings than people available to fill them, we agree that the recession fear narrative was maybe overdone. However, by late Friday, China cut off talks early with the U.S. on trade discussions, and if the U.S. and China negotiations on a trade agreement turn south, the disruption could be big enough to push the world into a recession. Also, worth noting is the fact that most developed countries besides the U.S. are not experiencing great economic growth. For the moment, the U.S. remains the envy of the world.
Regarding interest rates, we continue to believe a sub 2.000% 10-year Treasury is a gift to borrowers and that loan programs should be locked-in at these levels. The low rates have definitely spurred buying in the higher-priced coastal markets as borrowers are able to qualify for more home which is also a positive sign for our domestic economy.
Equities have been on a tear this week and bond yields ripped higher as recession fears take a back seat to positive commentary out of the U.S. and China on trade talks. Further calming fears about the state of the U.S. economy was better than expected August retail sales report and the steepening yield curve. With the U.S. consumer comprising a majority of the economy, this report reinforces that there is no imminent recession in sight. Just last week the 10-year Treasury note was trading around 1.500% versus the current rate of 1.87%, a remarkable move in just a few days. With rates on the rise, the recent flood of applications by U.S. individual and corporate borrowers will subside, especially if rates move a bit higher from here. However, as we have opined previously, our feeling was that the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape and that a 10-year treasury under 1.500% was an alert to lock-in rates.
Across the pond, the ECB eased their monetary policy in response to their stalling economy and doubled down on negative interest rate policies. It is becoming unclear how much negative rates help economic viability, but with rates already so low and Europe teetering on recession, the ECB believes it is best to err on the side of more easing. These policies are creating havoc with respect to how to evaluate risk and are pushing investors into riskier asset classes in search of yield. The one positive for the U.S. borrower is negative rates abroad will limit how high interest rates will move back home.
The next big news event is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week. Odds heavily favor a rate decrease of one-quarter of one percent on the Fed Funds rate to keep pace with the easing going on in the rest of the developed world. It will be interesting to hear the commentary from the Fed Chair after the rate decision is made and how the markets respond to more easing.
Stocks surged mid-week in response to some positive news regarding the news that the U.S. and China may be returning to the negotiating table on trade talks. Also, the U.S. economy, while slowing, appears to be in pretty good shape for the moment. The August jobs report was lower than expected but had no real effect on stocks and bonds. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.70%, and while the report suggests the economy is slowing, there were no real surprises within the report.
However, multiple mixed signals regarding recession persist. It is hard to reconcile the various reports as there many cross-currents on the direction of both the economy. Interest rates and bond yields are flashing different signals. Recently published manufacturing data in the U.S. is worrisome and support the need for lower rates to boost growth, but better than expected economic data out of China suggest otherwise. An inverted yield curve in the U.S. (indicating a potential recession) support the argument that U.S. interest rate policy may be too tight, but low inflation and low unemployment suggest that interest rate policy may be near neutral and on target. Strong consumer spending and high levels of small business optimism argue strongly against the recession outcome, while a global slowdown and negative yields in Europe and Japan are an ominous signal of a recession or worse in the coming 24 months.
What has been great for many homeowners or those buyers sitting on the sidelines is that low-interest rates are either lowering monthly expenses or helping new home buyers qualify for a bigger mortgage or a better quality home. We continue to be in the rate-lock camp and continue to advise clients to take advantage of the 10-year Treasury note at ~1.500% which has pushed loan rates way down.
Some positive headlines on trade negotiations as well as good consumer readings, modest corporate profits, and low inflation data helped stabilize the equity market this week. Bond yields seem to have hit a floor with the 10-year U.S. Treasury touching a low of 1.47% before settling at 1.50%. While the yield curve remains inverted and should be closely watched as it has historically foretold past recessions, fears of recession quieted this week as the markets stabilized after last Friday’s ugly trading day. However, there remain many potential landmines in the coming weeks that could turn markets for the worst beginning with an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods September 1st, a highly anticipated Fed meeting, and a no-deal Brexit at the end of October. With negative rates in Europe and Japan, U.S. mortgage rates will only move so high, which should keep investors analyzing riskier asset classes such as equities and real estate for yield.
What is not making headlines is the fact that lenders are so busy that in order to slow the flow of business rates are being increased. This disconnect is creating opportunities for some smaller lenders to compete with larger money center banks on deals that they would usually not be able to compete on. Our office continues to see increased volume from our clients who are both buying new real estate and refinancing currently owned properties with favorable terms.
As we mentioned last week, our stance is to lock-in interest rates at these attractive levels, especially with the added knowledge that lenders are filling up to the point where rates may have to rise lender by lender to slow down the volume. This does not mean rates couldn’t go lower, but with the 10-year at ~1.500%, there is no shame in locking in loans at these low levels.
U.S. bond prices rose (yields moved lower) and stocks went negative quickly Friday morning as a result of tough talk out of both the U.S. and China regarding trade. This has become a tug of war over the direction of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of unprecedented trade negotiations with the world’s second-largest economy.
U.S.-China trade tensions, an inverted yield curve, and political issues in Italy, Argentina, and Hong Kong all support the lower rate narrative, while low unemployment, tame inflation, slowing but better than expected global manufacturing data, and good corporate earnings suggest that the U.S. economy will continue to grow. Only time will tell which camp is right.
The inverted yield curve is a very respected recessionary indicator, in which short-term yields move above long-term yields. This inversion suggests that the market is signaling slower growth long-term and that the current money supply may become too tight (banks can’t make money when interest rates are inverted), which could inhibit lending. The Fed will certainly address this inversion in its upcoming FOMC meeting, and the odds are on another rate cut by the Fed in the coming weeks.
However, other indicators are not flashing recession and the U.S. economy is healthy. Mortgage applications are surging and we are in the camp that believes that the lower rates will help boost consumer spending as overall financing costs for everything from autos to mortgage to business loans will move lower.
With the 10-year Treasury trading near 1.500%, we continue to be biased toward locking-in interest rates at these incredibly low levels.
This has become a tale of two narratives, one in which trade tensions and dropping bond yields portend an imminent slow-down in the U.S and world economy and a heightened risk of recession, and a totally different tale of healthy consumer spending, low unemployment, good business confidence readings, and better than expected earnings, which support the no-recession narrative.
Complicating the recession narrative further was a positive revision on GDP on Thursday even as global bond yields moved lower in the U.S. and more negative in Europe and Japan. While our own personal belief is the recession talk may be overdone, at some point even with the U.S. economy in good shape, should the economic slowdown in Europe and China continue, the U.S. will be affected. This ideology will play a role in the Fed’s September meeting. Odds favor another rate cut as the U.S. looks to keep its interest rates in line with the rest of the developed world.
Mortgage activity has picked up big-time as rates have returned to near historic lows. While the high-priced coastal housing market remains sluggish, we are optimistic the current low rate environment will motivate on the fence buyers.
The drop in monthly payments from refinance transactions will also benefit the economy as more money will be freed up for the purchase of other goods and services. Given our belief about the resilience of the U.S. economy in conjunction with where interest rates are at the moment, it is hard to argue against locking-in purchase and refinance transaction as these levels. However, as evidenced by central bank policy in Europe and Japan, rates could go even lower or even negative in today’s world.
Wow! Bond yields around the world plummeted as fears of a full-blown trade war with China escalated creating volatility in all markets. The U.S. China trade war has increased the odds of a U.S. recession as the deterioration in trade talks will add additional stress to decelerating global factory output. This prompted central banks around the world to cut interest rates further as the race to zero, or negative rates goes on. Gold also surged as a safer-haven investment. How this all will end is anyone’s guess.
Back in the U.S., the economy remains strong but slowing as the Trump tax cuts wear off and U.S. companies reconfigure global supply chains due to uncertainties with China. Recession concerns have increased as GDP forecasts have been cut and corporate earnings are slowing. This is what the inversion of parts of the U.S. yield curve is suggesting. An inverted yield curve is one of the best indicators of an oncoming recession. All of this activity pushed U.S. bond yields to levels thought not possible just a few months ago.
On the plus side, one group that is happy see rates plummet are borrowers. Refinance applications have skyrocketed and while the home purchase market has been stalling, the hope is that lower interest rates will spur buyers into action. While we have been cautious about locking in interest rates once the 10-year Treasury note touched 2.00%, the huge surge in loan applications may affect bank pricing so we continue to advise to lock-in. With interest rates so low, for some borrowers, the real cost of funding is near zero which should help consumers make additional purchases and lower monthly expenses.