Bond Yields Hold Steady Despite Higher Inflation Data
It comes as no surprise that inflation is picking up. All you have to do is read about the surging costs of lumber, food, oil, copper, and other manufacturing-related products. Lack of affordable housing and non-affordable housing in many states (think CA) has pushed prices up in many parts of the country. The Fed continues to downplay this acceleration of prices as transitory and controllable as it continues to buy over $120B in bonds each month, creating an interesting dynamic between inflation and interest rates. What consumers are feeling in their pocketbooks is what counts at the end of the day, and it is hard to argue there is no inflation, in that context.
PPI data came in extremely hot today at 1% versus expected .4%. We expect CPI data next week to beat expectations. The combination of pent-up consumer demand, mass vaccinations, and increased business activity are all underway. However, the bond market is taking this data in stride for the moment, as is the stock market. The likelihood of lower rates seems improbable with an improving economy. The Fed continues to be the main buyer of U.S. treasuries. The size of the supply has just become too much for most institutions and governments to bid on in scale. Should bond traders lose faith in Fed policy, 10-year Treasury rates could move up above 2% fairly quickly.
The counterargument to higher interest rates is higher taxes. Higher corporate taxes and personal taxes will drag down earnings, higher-paying jobs, discretionary spending, and CAPEX spending. This could cool off economic growth and stock market acceleration which would be to the benefit of bonds. Rates above 1.75% on the 10-year Treasury could be of concern. How long this “Goldilocks environment” can sustain is anyone’s guess. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan’s CEO, thinks we can see the combination of growth and low rates through 2023. However, many other market experts feel rates will move higher by the end of the year. With that in mind, we are encouraging our clients to take advantage of this low rate environment today versus waiting for lower rates at some time in the future.