The U.S. economy is slowly reopening, a welcome sign to our small business owners. Social distancing will keep customer-facing businesses operating well below capacity. However, it is important that businesses open before too much time passes and customer habits change for good, and employees move on. Policymakers will be looking to balance the threat of the disease against the risk of long-term structural economic destruction as our country tries to normalize. It will be interesting to see how consumers respond to the re-opening of malls, restaurants, and other communal businesses. So much remains to be seen. We hope only for the best.
The weekly unemployment numbers continue to increase, but at a slower pace and within the range of economists’ expectations. Lower-paying, customer-facing jobs have been most affected. The government response to this crisis, while far from perfect, has been effective at getting money to those who needed it most. The government is expected to take some hit on the PPP loans and other disaster relief programs but those programs are providing a lifeline to small businesses. The Federal Reserve back-stopped the entire bond market preventing a total collapse in both the equity and debt markets. If the Treasury and Fed had not worked as quickly as they did, things would be much worse at the moment. While there is still a tremendous risk to so many business owners, and there’s a long road to recovery ahead, never underestimate American entrepreneurship and innovation.
How the housing market will be affected by the pandemic over a longer period of time remains to be seen, but there are signs that some consumer behavior will begin to normalize. There is certainly pent up demand for many products which is encouraging for the housing market, and our consumer-led economy. Low interest rates (which may even go lower assuming a successful re-opening of the economy) should act as a tonic to both the purchase and refinance market. Home supply remains constrained and the warmer weather of late spring and summer should act as a tailwind for people looking to buy homes as studies suggest coronavirus appears to be less virulent in the warmer weather.
Insignia Mortgage remains committed to helping clients access attractive financing. Our lenders continue to make common-sense decisions and offer out of the box solutions with very attractive interest rates and terms.