Equities Surge Amidst Better Than Expected April Jobs Report
Equities surged on Friday following the release of a better-than-feared April Jobs Report, calming worries of an imminent recession. Troubled regional banks rallied by over 70% in some cases, even as bond yields rose. Nonetheless, any optimism surrounding the regional banks may be short-lived as more bank failures are expected. This is due to the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep short-term interest rates higher for longer, which will put pressure on all but America’s biggest banks to raise deposit rates and scale back lending.
As borrowers realize that a 5%+ short-term U.S. Treasury bill is a much better return than keeping money in their bank, we’re seeing a movement of money out of banks designed to slow economic growth and cool off demand. The question remains: how long of a lag does Fed policy come with? Some on Wall Street believe that inflation and interest rates will fall dramatically within the coming months. We take the more conservative view that it will take a longer time for interest rates to decline and inflation to move back down to 2.00%. We don’t see the need to raise interest rates further, but we are taking the Fed at its word that rates will remain elevated for longer.
State of the Mortgage Market
Despite the challenging market conditions, the mortgage market is functioning well. We’re creating many new relationships with lenders we’ve not pursued doing business with or known of until recently. Here’s a sampling of some interesting products on active deals we’re working on in both the residential and commercial space (yes, Insignia Mortgage does commercial loans too!):
- Single-family home loans of up to $4MM at 80% loan-to-value with rates in the mid-5s for ARM loans
- Single-family home loans of up to $30MM at 70% loan-to-value with rates under 5% with a banking relationship
- Owner-occupied commercial loans of up to $10MM with rates in the mid-5s
- Multi-family apartment loans of up to $15MM with rates in the mid-5s
