Market Commentary: 5/27/2022

Inflation Falls Slightly, Mortgage Rates Edge Lower.

Finally, some good news. The Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, Core PCE, rose at a slower pace than last month. While this number is still way too high, it did not rise above the April reading that wreaked havoc on the equity markets and spooked the bond market. Personal spending is still going strong, but customers are opting for cheaper-priced goods. This week’s market action – equity higher and bond yields lower – is a welcome break from one of the worst 4 plus months in the market’s history. Nonetheless, there are many headwinds to be mindful of.  The Fed will begin quantitative tightening in June and is slated to increase rates in both of the next two meetings. Additionally, there is a lingering fear that this recent rally is what is causing a bear trap (a quick temporary move higher in the equity markets, only to reverse lower a short while later). This false technical indication inflicts painful losses on investors, pocketbooks, and the psyche. Home sales quickly slowing, consumers are dipping into savings, and  I don’t foresee the Fed reversing course on interest rate increases any time soon. Inflation is public enemy number one and a huge burden on the least wealthy members of our society.  

The Diamond in The Rough: Finding Value In The Current Market

Most of the experts I follow are more bearish in nature, with a target on the S&P of 3,800 to 3,900. This does not mean that one cannot find value during difficult market periods.  For example, a nervous home seller is likely to be more willing to settle for a lower price. In this case, real estate brokers will follow suit and be inclined to negotiate more to make a deal happen. Tougher times create opportunities that cannot be forgotten. The same principles apply to other investments. You just have to be willing to do the work to find value.

As the WSJ and other financial papers write about rising mortgage rates, mortgage rates have quietly and quickly come down. The 2-10 year yield curve has also steepened a bit, providing relief to those worried about a recession. Inflation remains a wild card. Recent lock-downs in China have weakened its growth, which is also quite worrisome.  All of these economic issues combined will keep markets on edge for quite some time. One could say that interest rates have gotten more attractive- when viewed in the context of their downshift. However, with the short end of the curve controlled by the Fed, I hold the belief that the direction of interest rates is higher.  A 10-year Treasury at 3.500% would not surprise me in these coming months, especially if inflation recedes, but not as quickly as hoped for.

Market Commentary 10/29/21

The upcoming weeks are developing into an interesting time for the financial markets. While the argument can be made that all things are transitory, the Fed’s definition of transitory has been a few months. Core inflation is at a thirty-year high with no sign of abatement. Inflation appears likely to linger. Many of America’s best companies have commented about the supply chain and labor shortages. Numerous companies are offering several thousand dollars in signing bonuses to entry-level employees just to attract new hires. Other companies are addressing the employee shortage by finding their own logistics solutions to get goods to their customers. 

Rising inflation is just not a U.S. issue. As the world recovers from the shock and reopening of COVID, the global supply chain has been broken. Some countries have seen enough of rising prices. The combination of surging demand with easy monetary and fiscal policy has created a massive amount of money in the global financial system. 

To combat run-away inflation, some foreign central banks have begun raising short-term interest rates. It is not believed the U.S. is ready to raise interest rates, but the Fed has been signaling its intention of slowing the pace of purchases of bonds and mortgage-backed securities, a measure known as Quantitative Easing.  By signaling the market of this intention, the Fed is hopeful the markets will take the news in stride. So far, so good. But there is no doubt that policymakers will be monitoring the markets very closely should the taper become official.

The Biden infrastructure, social welfare, and taxation plan are still not a done deal. Odds are that the plans will be implemented. There has not been enough time to adequately review the policy and how it might affect the U.S. financial and real estate markets.  However, as we have opined previously, we don’t like the idea of increased taxes on capital gains on investments, especially if not inflation-adjusted. If taxes are raised too high on speculative investments, the desire to take risks will diminish. 

The bond market remains sanguine on inflation but the yield curve has begun to flatten as future rate hikes seem more likely. As a result, slowed economic growth is probable. Remember, the Fed can control the short end of the curve but not the long end of the curve (unless the Fed implements yield curve control). Many banks price corporate bonds off of the 5-year Treasury so as this yield rises, so will corporate interest expense.  With mortgage rates drifting higher, loan volume has slowed. This should come as no surprise. Alternative mortgage products are leading the charge for many of Insignia Mortgage’s clients. Many new home buyers and refinance applicants are not bankable with traditional lenders as many applicants have opaque financial structures. This segment of applicants tends to have hard to understand income, be from a foreign country, or are quite substantial from an asset standpoint. Real estate has been a great hedge against inflation historically. The combination of low-interest rates and rising real estate values continue to keep transaction activity high.