Tag: jobs report

Market Commentary 06/13/2025

damon Damon Germanides
June 13, 2025

Rising Geopolitical Risks and Evolving Economic Signals

Market attention is expected to intensify over the weekend as geopolitical tensions rise between Israel and Iran. Equities dropped on Friday following reports of Israeli strikes on key nuclear and strategic sites. Oil prices and bond yields increased, while U.S. Treasuries—typically considered a safe haven—also rallied. Despite yields soaring elsewhere, the rally in Treasuries indicates ongoing market concerns about inflation, the growing U.S. debt burden, and a weakening dollar.

Markets have been relatively calm over the past 45 days, having digested tariff developments, but this new escalation could trigger renewed volatility. Any sustained disruption to oil markets could make energy prices more costly, exacerbating upward pressure on bond yields.

On the inflation front, both CPI and PPI came in lower than expected. However, some analysts suggest the soft prints may reflect pre-buying of goods ahead of tariff implementation. June’s data will provide more clarity. With inflation readings cooling and jobs data remaining stable—but not overly strong—there’s a growing case for the Fed to begin seriously discussing rate cuts. The upcoming Fed meeting will be closely watched, particularly as the White House continues to push for lower rates. The potential conflict in the Middle East only adds complexity to the Fed’s decision-making.

Higher interest rates are progressively weighing on real estate investors, business owners, and private equity. Many investment deals no longer pencil out once adjusted for today’s cost of capital. This is evident across housing, multifamily, and construction financing. Home prices begin to soften as inventory lingers, with lenders tightening guidelines. While prime borrowers still secure approvals, others are being pushed into the non-QM or private credit markets.

Watch for rising auto loan and credit card delinquencies as early signs of consumer strain. Despite strong public market performance, the combined effects of inflation, elevated rates, and a gradually slowing economy take its toll on everyday Americans.

These are the opinions of the author. For financial advice, please talk to your CPA or financial professional.

Market Commentary 06.06.25

damon Damon Germanides
June 6, 2025

A better-than-expected May jobs report pushed equities and bond yields higher. An in-depth review of the data shows signs of slowing in certain areas of the economy, yet the report largely dismissed concerns of an imminent downturn. For mortgage markets, however, the report was not welcome news—odds of a Fed rate cut in June or July dropped sharply. While there is still hope for a September cut, the continued strength of both the U.S. economy and labor market reinforces the “higher for longer” thesis on interest rates.

Meanwhile, the “Big Beautiful Bill” is not being well received by bond traders, particularly on the long end of the curve. We’ve consistently expressed concern over the nation’s unchecked spending and structural deficits, both of which we believe are key drivers behind rising yields. Inflation appears temporarily subdued, despite upward risks from new tariffs and tighter immigration policies, and U.S. interest rates remain elevated relative to those of other developed countries. From our perspective, this indicates more than just inflation risk, it represents the market’s concern over America’s growing debt burden and lack of political resolve to address it.

In housing, the story remains the same: low inventory, high prices, and a cost of living that’s straining affordability across income levels. What was once primarily a challenge for lower-income households is now affecting the middle and upper classes as well. That said, one bright spot is emerging; A-paper lenders are beginning to reprice more competitively, aided by the steepness of the yield curve. For top-tier borrowers, this could result in ARM rates dipping below 5% in the near term. Unfortunately, borrowers reliant on alternative loan products—typically structured as 30-year fixed loans—may not reap this benefit, as such rates remain stubbornly high.

All eyes now turn to next week’s CPI and PPI prints. For residential real estate to regain momentum, the market will need a catalyst—either lower prices or lower interest rates. Stay tuned and make sure you’re subscribed to Insignia Mortgage’s Market Commentary for the latest updates and rates.

Market Commentary 05/09/2025

damon Damon Germanides
May 9, 2025

Tariffs, Debt, And A Cautious Consumer

Since our last update, financial markets have been agitated by heightened volatility, driven by renewed tariff announcements. Growth-sensitive equities were hit hard following Liberation Day, while bonds—typically a safe haven in turbulent markets—barely moved. Such a muted bond response highlights a deeper concern over the United States’ ballooning debt. With over $4 billion in daily interest expense, investors are demanding higher yields to compensate for increased risk, making this a “today” problem instead of a “future” one.

Further compounding uncertainty are unresolved trade policies, a Federal Reserve reluctant to lower interest rates, and the potential for a one-time price reset once tariff clarity emerges. These dynamics are weighing heavily on both consumer sentiment and business investment, causing noticeable delays in capital deployment.

Chair Powell answers reporters’ questions at the FOMC press conference on May 7, 2025.
FOMC meetings, calendars, statements, and minutes are available here. 

While certain soft indicators point to a fatigued consumer, the labor market remains resilient. This creates a policy dilemma for the Fed—why cut rates in the face of solid job data and risk fueling inflation? Nonetheless, rising delinquencies on auto loans and credit cards suggest that many Americans are feeling financial pressure despite headline employment strength.

The real estate market, and housing in particular, is experiencing the consequences of this macro backdrop. After a decade of strong appreciation, home prices appear to be leveling off. Affordability challenges persist, with many potential buyers unable to qualify for conventional financing. Even as banks offer competitive pricing on traditional loans, borrowers are increasingly opting for creative, non-traditional solutions—despite the higher cost.

Client feedback continues to reflect a difficult business climate. Many are accessing home equity through cash-out refinances—either to fund new home purchases, support business operations, or consolidate higher-interest debt. As a result, the bulk of today’s lending activity is concentrated in nuanced and bespoke mortgage products that provide the flexibility today’s borrowers require.

Mortgage rate surveys support the view that lenders are aggressively competing for a limited number of qualified prospects. A sampling of current rates across various loan types (for illustrative purposes only) is shown below:

  • Private bank loans: Starting at 5.375%
  • Boutique bank loans: Starting at 6.125%
  • Profit and loss-based loans: Starting at 6.25%
  • Bank statement loans: Starting at 6.500%
  • DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans: Starting at 6.875%
  • Bridge loans: Starting at 8.500%

View the latest interest rates and subscribe to Insignia Mortgage’s Weekly Market Commentary by Top Originator, Damon Germanides.

Market Commentary 04/11/2025

damon Damon Germanides
April 11, 2025

Tariffs, Volatility & Mortgage Market Whiplash

The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff announcements sent global equity and bond markets into a tailspin, driving the CNN Fear & Greed Index down to a 4. We are now at levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis or the shock of COVID. While the current backdrop may not be as severe, investor panic is evident. Since World War II, global growth has relied on comparative economics — countries focusing on what they produce best and trading for the rest. But persistent U.S. trade deficits have led this administration to push for a more level playing field, targeting tariffs and VAT-related pricing disadvantages overseas. The scale of the proposals, however, rattled bond markets and led to a temporary pullback in policy.

Mortgage rates dipped briefly as the 10-year Treasury yield touched below 4%, but that rally was short-lived. The reversal wasn’t driven by inflation data — CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected — but rather by fears of tariff-induced inflation. Manufacturers are now in a bind and consumer confidence is weakening, which makes passing on higher input costs difficult. As a result, we face potential margin compression, weaker earnings, and continued market volatility.

One bright spot for consumers: oil has dropped below $60/barrel, easing some cost-of-living pressures. And while equity markets have pulled back roughly 10% from recent highs, this correction may be a healthy repricing after an extended period of overvaluation.

In the housing market, expect:

  • Price adjustments as buyers grow more cautious
  • Cash-out refinances by self-employed borrowers seeking liquidity
  • Tighter underwriting as lenders brace for inflation, recession risk, and asset repricing
  • More loan applications moving to the non-QM or private credit space due to tightened credit box by big banks (bank statement loans, no-income verification loans, DSCR loans, bridge loans).

On the interest rate front, Wall Street is split — from zero to four cuts forecasted this year. Based on borrower sentiment and softening labor trends, we believe the Fed may deliver 1–2 rate cuts. Consumers are watching their wallets, and business owners are becoming more defensive.

If the Fed does ease later this year, it could bring much-needed relief to mortgage rates — a welcomed boost for the housing sector.

Market Commentary 04/04/2025

damon Damon Germanides
April 4, 2025

Tariffs Overshadow Strong Jobs Report

Mortgage Rates Fall As Economic Fears Rise

A better-than-expected March jobs report took a back seat to the volatile market response following the latest tariff announcements. Equity markets are experiencing heightened volatility as strategists attempt to assess how U.S. tariffs—and retaliatory measures—will unfold in the coming weeks. One big potential consequence of a trade war is triggering a global recession. There is growing concern that a trade war could lead to stagflation—a slowing economy paired with rising costs.

It remains unclear whether the goal of the tariffs is to bring other nations to the negotiating table for improved trade agreements with the U.S. or if they represent a more permanent shift in trade policy. We hope for the former and that these tariffs serve as leverage to secure better trade deals, ultimately benefiting U.S. trade relationships.

High Volatility

The market’s current anxiety is best exemplified by the VIX above 40 and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index at a reading of 4, which is an extreme fear level. While it’s uncertain whether last week’s developments fully justify this level of negativity, there is a sense that automated trading is amplifying market swings. Wall Street has a reputation for punishing retail investors during periods of heightened volatility.

A look at the 2-year Treasury note suggests the market is pricing in upcoming Fed rate cuts. Despite the Fed Chair downplaying this possibility, the probability of cuts appears to be rising. Long-term inflation expectations are also falling. Significant equity losses and weakening consumer confidence weigh heavy on sentiment. We expect inflation to decline rapidly, driven by reduced government spending and a shift in consumer behavior following major wealth erosion. Lower interest rates are likely to follow.

Positive Outlook for Residential Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are improving across the board, benefiting from equity market volatility as banks reprice downward. Many loan products are now offering rates below 5%, which should enhance affordability for homebuyers and incentivize refinancing, particularly for cash-out borrowers. Sellers may also be more willing to reduce home prices amid recession concerns, a desire to raise cash, or a need to lower housing expenses.

Caution for Commercial Real Estate

Unlike the residential market, commercial real estate may not see the same relief. Widening spreads—particularly in high-yield markets—are concerning and should be closely monitored. Riskier segments of the commercial real estate market may face higher borrowing costs and diminished investor appetite if spreads continue to widen and delinquencies rise.

Market Commentary 03/21/2025

damon Damon Germanides
March 21, 2025

Market Recap & Key Economic Indicators

Stocks ended the week in positive territory after another period of volatility. The Federal Reserve maintained its stance on interest rates, opting for a “wait and see” approach instead of initiating rate cuts. Key takeaways from the Fed’s latest commentary suggest that the economy remains stable, with a slight expected increase in unemployment—though not significant enough to justify a major policy shift. The Fed continues to project positive GDP growth for the year.

One area of concern was the Fed’s discussion on tariffs and their inflationary impact. While tariffs may introduce one-time cost increases for certain goods, it’s worth noting that imports account for approximately 15% of the total U.S. GDP. As a result, the overall impact on inflation may be less severe than some forecasts suggest. That said, tariff uncertainties continue to create market disruptions, though the broader U.S. economy may absorb these effects more constructively than many anticipate.

Oil, Bonds, and Interest Rates

The ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia and its potential to resolve the conflict threatens to put downward pressure on oil prices. Historically, bond yields and oil prices have moved in tandem, meaning that a decline in oil could contribute to lower interest rates. With oil as a fundamental input cost across multiple industries, any drop in energy prices would also help temper inflationary pressures.

Breakdown of U.S. Treasury Debt: The composition of outstanding U.S. Treasury debt is as follows:

  • $6.4 trillion in Treasury bills (maturing in one year or less)
  • $14.7 trillion in Treasury notes (maturing in 2-10 years)
  • $4.9 trillion in Treasury bonds (20- and 30-year maturities)
  • $2.0 trillion in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
  • $0.63 trillion in Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)

With a significant portion of this debt rolling over from historically low interest rates, concerns around the U.S. interest expense and rising deficit spending are intensifying. Many economists and bond traders believe the nation is approaching a tipping point, where ongoing deficit growth and increasing debt-servicing costs may become unsustainable.

Housing Market & Economic Indicators to Watch

February’s existing home sales came in stronger than expected, a positive sign for those operating in the existing home sales market. After nearly two years of muted activity, there are early indications that homebuyers may be gradually returning. While better home sales support a strong economy, other signals suggest the economy is slowing. Mixed signals make forecasting difficult.

Given the uncertain economic environment, we are closely monitoring the following key indicators to assess the direction of interest rates and overall market conditions:

  1. Oil prices – A leading indicator of inflationary pressures
  2. 2-year vs. 10-year Treasury yield spread – A key gauge of economic sentiment and recession risk
  3. Weekly unemployment claims – A real-time measure of labor market health
  4. Automobile loan delinquencies – A potential warning sign of consumer financial stress
  5. Housing starts – A crucial indicator of real estate market momentum

All eyes now turn to next week’s CPI and PPI prints. For residential real estate to regain momentum, the market will need a catalyst—either lower prices or lower interest rates. Stay tuned and make sure you’re subscribed to Insignia Mortgage’s Market Commentary for the latest updates and rates.

These are the opinions of the author. For financial advice, please talk to your CPA or financial professional.

Market Commentary 03/14/2025

damon Damon Germanides
March 14, 2025

Economy, Tariffs, & Interest Rates

U.S. equities saw heightened volatility this week, with the S&P briefly entering correction territory before rebounding strongly. Bonds rose on Friday and ended the week higher, suggesting that market fears may have been exaggerated. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations continues to burden investors. While some evidence suggests the U.S. economy can perform well amidst higher tariffs, most economists warn of restricted growth and inflationary pressures. However, some financial experts argue that pro-growth policies, deregulation, and AI-driven productivity gains could offset these costs, contributing to market volatility.

Consumer confidence declined more than expected, driven by high living costs and tariff uncertainty. While business confidence remains elevated, there are growing concerns that the economy is slowing. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations continues to weigh on investors. Business travel is slowing, with mixed reports from public companies suggesting increased uncertainty and consumer distress.

Recession fears have intensified as banks lower year-end forecasts for the S&P. While this could lead to lower interest rates over time, government spending reductions may create short-term economic challenges. A market reset could help bring home prices down, providing relief for buyers currently priced out of homeownership. However, commercial real estate could face renewed pressure as banks tighten lending and push borrowers to refinance or pay down loans. Many properties have seen equity eroded or wiped out, fueling demand for private bridge and mezzanine lending as large funds raise capital to fill financing gaps.

Market Commentary 03/07/2025

damon Damon Germanides
March 7, 2025

Uncertain Economic Data Pushes Mortgage Rates Lower

Markets remain volatile as concerns over economic slowdown and tariff uncertainties weigh on equities. The Nasdaq has been hit particularly hard, with many high-profile tech stocks trading lower. The rotation out of technology has significantly impacted stocks like Tesla, which has sharply declined. However, Tesla is not alone—many high-beta AI and technology stocks are undergoing a pricing adjustment. Given that the “Magnificent 7” were the primary drivers of equity appreciation over the past two years, their decline could substantially impact broader markets and consumer spending should they fall further.

The February Jobs Report indicated a slight slowdown in hiring amid rising economic uncertainty and government layoffs. Bond traders viewed the report as modestly positive, with the unemployment rate ticking up and earnings growth easing,

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model projects a -2.4% slowdown, signaling potential economic contraction. In recent years, government and healthcare jobs have driven employment growth, but these sectors do not necessarily contribute to GDP expansion like private sector job creation does. As post-COVID recovery stabilizes and government stimulus fades, the likelihood of an economic downturn increases. While business confidence remains high, consumer concerns over the cost of living persist. Additionally, weak housing data is troubling, as home sales are a key driver of economic growth, supporting jobs and consumer spending.

The elevated uncertainty has pushed bond yields lower across the market, with the 10-year Treasury (the benchmark for most real estate loans) declining significantly. This has resulted in more favorable mortgage rates. Banks and credit unions continue to offer competitive pricing on both residential and commercial loans, except for office properties, which remain a challenging sector for lenders. Abundant private credit is also pushing bridge and other types of more temporary financing rates lower as competition for better quality deals heats up.

Market Commentary 02/28/25

damon Damon Germanides
February 28, 2025

Market Update: Interest Rates Decline Amid Rising Volatility

Interest rates continued to fall this week as market volatility increased. Equities, including Tesla and Palantir, experienced significant sell-offs, driving investors toward a risk-off environment that favored bonds. Additionally, growing concerns over a slowing economy contributed to the downward movement in yields.

Key Economic Data & Market Indicators

This week’s economic data highlighted a sharp decline in housing sales—an expected outcome given high home prices and elevated borrowing costs. Weekly unemployment claims also saw a notable increase, signaling potential softening in the labor market. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, aligned with expectations, providing a supportive reading for bond yields.

The Trump administration, through the Department of Government Efficiency, has introduced cost-cutting measures, including job reductions. While bond markets have responded positively in the short term, extended job cuts could weigh on economic growth.

Adding to economic uncertainty are ongoing tariff threats, which could disrupt global trade. The yield curve remains exceptionally flat, with portions re-inverting—historically a warning sign of recession. Many traders are closely monitoring these signals for potential market shifts.

Consumer Spending: Who’s Driving Growth?

Recent reports indicate that the wealthiest 20% of U.S. households are fueling most of the country’s consumer spending and economic growth. This trend is unsurprising, given that high home and equity values—paired with savings yields of 4% to 5%—have largely shielded this group from inflationary pressures.

However, many Americans continue to struggle with rising costs, as cumulative inflation has pushed prices up nearly 23% over the past few years. A key risk to spending remains equity market performance—if stocks correct significantly, even affluent consumers may reduce discretionary purchases. Bitcoin’s recent drop from $107,000 to $84,000—a 21% decline—underscores the volatility in high-risk assets. A broader sell-off across equities and alternative investments could further dampen consumer spending.

Mortgage Rates & Lending Conditions

One bright spot in the current market is the continued decline in mortgage rates, improving affordability for both residential and commercial borrowers.

• Residential Mortgages: Some banks are now offering rates below 6%, with highly qualified borrowers securing loans under 5.5% through relationship pricing.

• Commercial Loans (Sub-$15M): Banks and credit unions are pricing multi-family, retail, and owner-user loans below 6%.

• No-Income Verification Loans: Currently in the mid-6% range for loans up to $5 million.

Bridge Financing Becomes More Competitive

• Professional Developers (Renovation Loans): Leverage-based loans available at 7.99%.

• Bridge & Value-Add Multi-Family Loans: Rates range from 7.99% to 9.50%, depending on loan size and unit count.

Lower borrowing costs should help stimulate both home sales and refinancing activity, particularly if yields continue their downward trajectory.

As economic uncertainty lingers, all eyes remain on interest rates, inflation data, and equity market trends—factors that will shape investment decisions and financial markets in the months ahead. Subscribe to our weekly market commentary to stay up to date. 

Market Commentary 02/21/2025

damon Damon Germanides
February 23, 2025

Persistent Inflation and Weak Economic Data Rattle Equity Markets

This week, weaker-than-expected economic data, tariff uncertainty, and a rise in consumer inflation expectations pummeled stocks. In addition, consumer sentiment fell short of forecasts. It’s important to remember that confidence is the cheapest form of economic stimulus. As we have written for over two years, persistently high living costs and elevated housing expenses are wearing down everyday Americans.

The general public isn’t reassured by inflation returning to 2%. Cumulatively, prices have risen above 20%, while wages have yet to catch up. Consumer dollars simply aren’t stretching as far as they once did. A particularly worrisome signal comes from Walmart’s disappointing financial results, despite the retailer’s history of benefiting from consumers seeking better value. Some analysts speculate this could be a sign that consumers are nearing their breaking point, as inflation continues to erode spending power.

Bond yields responded as expected, with interest rates moving significantly lower later in the week. Treasury officials clarified their stance on issuing longer-dated bonds, easing pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield. Since most financial debt instruments—including mortgages, commercial loans, and auto loans—are priced off the 5-, 7-, and 10-year Treasury yields, this decline is a welcome development. With the 10-year Treasury below 4.50%, we anticipate mortgage rates to decline in the coming week. 

As for the Fed, they remain in a wait-and-see mode. Recent inflation data suggests they may have acted too soon and too aggressively with their initial 50-basis-point rate cut. While short-term interest rates remain restrictive, they may not be restrictive enough to cool inflation. With markets holding up reasonably well, the Fed finds itself in a challenging position with both inflation and inflation expectations rising. The likelihood of additional rate cuts appears remote. If inflation data continues to come in hotter than expected, expect discussions around the potential need for a rate hike.