Get fresh weekly insights on rate direction and financial news from Damon Germanides,
Insignia’s co-founder, with over 20 years experience in the California mortgage marketplace.
This week kicked off with better-than-expected consumer inflation data, sparking optimism that the Federal Reserve might cut rates in September. In some cases, this rate cut could be as much as 50 basis points. However, Thursday’s PPI (Producer Price Index) report painted a more complicated picture. The data showed wholesalers absorbing much of the inflation in goods, indicating that some costs have yet to be passed on to consumers. If those higher wholesale prices begin to filter through, future CPI readings could rise, making it harder for the Fed to justify aggressive rate cuts.
That said, given July’s weak jobs report, if the Fed is forced to choose between slightly higher inflation and easing financial conditions to support a slowing economy, our bet is they will cut rates to boost economic activity. The two-year Treasury yield has fallen to 3.75%, helping push many adjustable-rate mortgage products below 5.5%. In the jumbo space, we are now seeing rates under 6%, prompting renewed interest from borrowers. Nonetheless, with longer-dated Treasuries still near 5%, 30-year fixed money remains expensive at over 6%.
The current landscape is undeniably complex. Financial conditions don’t appear overly restrictive—IPOs are rolling out, Bitcoin and speculative trading are hot, equity indexes are at all-time highs, and credit spreads remain tight. Under normal circumstances, these would not be conditions for a Fed rate cut. But we live in unusual times. Political pressure to cut rates, coupled with the appointment of another dovish Fed governor, could put the central bank in a position where it cuts once, and likely twice, before year-end to fend off critics. If inflation reaccelerates more than expected in the coming months, those cuts could backfire. This is no easy time to be in the money game.
These are the opinions of the author. For financial advice, please talk to your CPA or financial professional.
Markets rallied through Thursday this week. Financial conditions felt loose, whether it was a high-flying IPO, a tight-spread bond trade, or a huge day-trade bet, with plenty of risk-taking across asset classes. The Fed, for its part, held rates steady, choosing patience as it waits for a clearer signal from inflation or jobs data before making its next policy move.
Friday’s jobs report delivered a jolt. The numbers came in sharply below expectations, rattling confidence and pushing investors to rethink the “all-clear” narrative. Adding fuel to the uncertainty, Trump’s latest tariff announcement landed the same day, further muddying the outlook for growth and trade.
We expect to see some better pricing on mortgages across the yield curve following the sharp drop in yields, after the jobs report. That said, the overall economy still appears resilient; consumer confidence is rebounding, corporate balance sheets remain healthy, and despite frustration over the cost of living, consumers continue to spend. With that backdrop, the recent rate dip may prove short-lived if the data turns stronger in the coming weeks.
The odds of a Fed rate cut in September are back on the table after Friday’s dismal jobs numbers. Wednesday’s Fed meeting had market participants thinking a rate cut was unlikely. With inflation still trending above the Fed’s 2% target, will the Fed flinch and lower interest rates out of fear of a slowing economy, or hold steady given that inflation is still elevated? Also, even if the Fed lowers short-term rates, how will the year 10 Treasury react? We will know much more in the coming weeks.
While much of the U.S. economy is service-driven and less sensitive to higher rates, housing and commercial real estate remain directly impacted. The 10-year Treasury continues to be elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms, keeping mortgage and construction financing expensive and weighing on both consumers and investors. Limited housing supply—especially in major markets with little new construction underway—continues to challenge affordability and transaction activity.
Market Moves Defy Headlines: What It Means for Mortgage Rates
While it’s been a few weeks since our last market update, recent movements in rates and equities might imply that everything has been business as usual. However, considering events like the precision bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, fears of sleeper cell retaliation, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and President Trump’s unconventional tariff negotiations, we would have expected lower rates and lower equities—not the opposite. Markets, nonetheless, have a remarkable way of looking past negative headlines and focusing on the future (at least most of the time).
Interest rates are drifting higher as tariff threats escalate. Companies without pricing power are currently absorbing increased costs, potentially pressuring earnings later in the year. Tariff negotiations are far from over, and it will be interesting to see how the bond market digests the potential for rising tariffs, slowing earnings, and higher unemployment.
Meanwhile, the White House has made no secret of its dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Powell. While we’re always in favor of lower rates, we don’t expect a dramatic 300-basis-point cut to the Fed Funds Rate. Our base case calls for one or two cuts, with the Fed Funds Rate settling around 4% and inflation climbing to roughly 3%. That being said, banks, alternative lenders, and private credit shops are beginning to lower note rates on high-quality loan scenarios. Here are a few recent quotes:
Luxury SFR purchase (30% down): 5/6 ARM at 5.25%
Luxury SFR cash-out refi (boutique bank): 7/6 ARM at 5.60%
Bridge loan (purchase, moderate leverage): 18-month interest-only at 8.99%
Community-focused program (underserved market): 30-year fixed at 5.70%
10-unit apartment building (regional bank): 5/6 ARM at 5.85%
On the housing front, the growing stress is apparent as inventory remains low and buyers remain hesitant, facing a double-whammy of elevated home prices and interest rates. Still, markets like Austin, TX and South Miami, FL show meaningful price corrections as more inventory becomes available. This is a trend we expect to continue nationally.
Los Angeles has slowed, but activity remains strong in more affordable submarkets, where well-priced homes are attracting multiple offers. Refinance activity has picked up as many borrowers’ ARMs from the 2020 low-rate cycle begin to reset. This could result in additional inventory as some homeowners, now facing much higher payments, consider selling—especially with today’s higher cost of living. We’re keeping a close eye on oil prices, the 10-year Treasury yield, and bank earnings as key signals for where the broader economy is headed. This remains a very tough market to handicap.
Rising Geopolitical Risks and Evolving Economic Signals
Market attention is expected to intensify over the weekend as geopolitical tensions rise between Israel and Iran. Equities dropped on Friday following reports of Israeli strikes on key nuclear and strategic sites. Oil prices and bond yields increased, while U.S. Treasuries—typically considered a safe haven—also rallied. Despite yields soaring elsewhere, the rally in Treasuries indicates ongoing market concerns about inflation, the growing U.S. debt burden, and a weakening dollar.
Markets have been relatively calm over the past 45 days, having digested tariff developments, but this new escalation could trigger renewed volatility. Any sustained disruption to oil markets could make energy prices more costly, exacerbating upward pressure on bond yields.
On the inflation front, both CPI and PPI came in lower than expected. However, some analysts suggest the soft prints may reflect pre-buying of goods ahead of tariff implementation. June’s data will provide more clarity. With inflation readings cooling and jobs data remaining stable—but not overly strong—there’s a growing case for the Fed to begin seriously discussing rate cuts. The upcoming Fed meeting will be closely watched, particularly as the White House continues to push for lower rates. The potential conflict in the Middle East only adds complexity to the Fed’s decision-making.
Higher interest rates are progressively weighing on real estate investors, business owners, and private equity. Many investment deals no longer pencil out once adjusted for today’s cost of capital. This is evident across housing, multifamily, and construction financing. Home prices begin to soften as inventory lingers, with lenders tightening guidelines. While prime borrowers still secure approvals, others are being pushed into the non-QM or private credit markets.
Watch for rising auto loan and credit card delinquencies as early signs of consumer strain. Despite strong public market performance, the combined effects of inflation, elevated rates, and a gradually slowing economy take its toll on everyday Americans.
These are the opinions of the author. For financial advice, please talk to your CPA or financial professional.
A better-than-expected May jobs report pushed equities and bond yields higher. An in-depth review of the data shows signs of slowing in certain areas of the economy, yet the report largely dismissed concerns of an imminent downturn. For mortgage markets, however, the report was not welcome news—odds of a Fed rate cut in June or July dropped sharply. While there is still hope for a September cut, the continued strength of both the U.S. economy and labor market reinforces the “higher for longer” thesis on interest rates.
Meanwhile, the “Big Beautiful Bill” is not being well received by bond traders, particularly on the long end of the curve. We’ve consistently expressed concern over the nation’s unchecked spending and structural deficits, both of which we believe are key drivers behind rising yields. Inflation appears temporarily subdued, despite upward risks from new tariffs and tighter immigration policies, and U.S. interest rates remain elevated relative to those of other developed countries. From our perspective, this indicates more than just inflation risk, it represents the market’s concern over America’s growing debt burden and lack of political resolve to address it.
In housing, the story remains the same: low inventory, high prices, and a cost of living that’s straining affordability across income levels. What was once primarily a challenge for lower-income households is now affecting the middle and upper classes as well. That said, one bright spot is emerging; A-paper lenders are beginning to reprice more competitively, aided by the steepness of the yield curve. For top-tier borrowers, this could result in ARM rates dipping below 5% in the near term. Unfortunately, borrowers reliant on alternative loan products—typically structured as 30-year fixed loans—may not reap this benefit, as such rates remain stubbornly high.
All eyes now turn to next week’s CPI and PPI prints. For residential real estate to regain momentum, the market will need a catalyst—either lower prices or lower interest rates. Stay tuned and make sure you’re subscribed to Insignia Mortgage’s Market Commentary for the latest updates and rates.
Join Damon Germanides at the 2025 IMN Non-QM Forum in Dana Point
Insignia Mortgage is proud to announce that our co-founder, Damon Germanides, will be speaking at the prestigious IMN Non-QM & Non-Agency Mortgage Forum, taking place June 5, 2025, at the Waldorf Astoria Monarch Beach Resort & Club in Dana Point, California.
A recognized leader in complex, non-agency lending solutions, Damon will be sharing valuable insights during the session: “New Product Innovation: What Does the Market Need?”
As the mortgage industry continues to evolve, this panel will explore the next wave of lending products designed to meet the unique needs of today’s borrowers—including real estate investors, self-employed individuals, and high-net-worth clients. Drawing on his extensive experience at Insignia Mortgage, one of the nation’s top-performing boutique mortgage brokerages, Damon will offer real-world perspective on where the non-QM market is headed and how lenders can stay ahead of the curve.
Why Attend?
Learn from thought leaders in non-QM mortgage lending
Get first-hand insights on product trends, risk management, and borrower behavior
Network with top professionals, lenders, and capital markets experts
Hear directly from a broker who’s helped originate over $6 billion in non-agency loans
📍 Event: IMN Non-QM & Non-Agency Mortgage Forum 📅 Date: June 5, 2025 📌 Location: Waldorf Astoria Monarch Beach, Dana Point, CA 🔗 Register here:https://lnkd.in/dtAGwj2m
Whether you’re a lender, capital markets professional, or real estate investor, this session is a must-attend for anyone navigating the future of alternative mortgage products.
Don’t miss it — reserve your spot today and connect with Damon Germanides live at Dana Point!
Since our last update, financial markets have been agitated by heightened volatility, driven by renewed tariff announcements. Growth-sensitive equities were hit hard following Liberation Day, while bonds—typically a safe haven in turbulent markets—barely moved. Such a muted bond response highlights a deeper concern over the United States’ ballooning debt. With over $4 billion in daily interest expense, investors are demanding higher yields to compensate for increased risk, making this a “today” problem instead of a “future” one.
Further compounding uncertainty are unresolved trade policies, a Federal Reserve reluctant to lower interest rates, and the potential for a one-time price reset once tariff clarity emerges. These dynamics are weighing heavily on both consumer sentiment and business investment, causing noticeable delays in capital deployment.
While certain soft indicators point to a fatigued consumer, the labor market remains resilient. This creates a policy dilemma for the Fed—why cut rates in the face of solid job data and risk fueling inflation? Nonetheless, rising delinquencies on auto loans and credit cards suggest that many Americans are feeling financial pressure despite headline employment strength.
The real estate market, and housing in particular, is experiencing the consequences of this macro backdrop. After a decade of strong appreciation, home prices appear to be leveling off. Affordability challenges persist, with many potential buyers unable to qualify for conventional financing. Even as banks offer competitive pricing on traditional loans, borrowers are increasingly opting for creative, non-traditional solutions—despite the higher cost.
Client feedback continues to reflect a difficult business climate. Many are accessing home equity through cash-out refinances—either to fund new home purchases, support business operations, or consolidate higher-interest debt. As a result, the bulk of today’s lending activity is concentrated in nuanced and bespoke mortgage products that provide the flexibility today’s borrowers require.
Mortgage rate surveys support the view that lenders are aggressively competing for a limited number of qualified prospects. A sampling of current rates across various loan types (for illustrative purposes only) is shown below:
Private bank loans: Starting at 5.375%
Boutique bank loans: Starting at 6.125%
Profit and loss-based loans: Starting at 6.25%
Bank statement loans: Starting at 6.500%
DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans: Starting at 6.875%
Bridge loans: Starting at 8.500%
View the latest interest rates and subscribe to Insignia Mortgage’s Weekly Market Commentary by Top Originator, Damon Germanides.
In the dynamic world of real estate finance, consistency and performance aren’t just admirable—they’re essential. For over a decade, Insignia Mortgage has exemplified both, earning top-tier recognition on the Scotsman Guide’s Top Originators list every single year. In 2025, the tradition continues—with multiple Insignia originators securing elite national rankings across categories.
Why the Scotsman Guide Matters
Since 2010, the Scotsman Guide has served as the industry standard for mortgage originator rankings. These rankings are based on verified loan volume and production metrics across key categories like Non-QM lending, brokered loans, and refinances. Earning a place on this list isn’t just a badge of honor—it’s a signal to real estate professionals that they’re working with the best in the business.
Insignia’s 2025 Highlights: A National Benchmark
This year, Chris Furie and Damon Germanides, co-founders of Insignia Mortgage, once again achieved standout rankings:
Chris Furie:
#8 – Top Mortgage Brokers
#4 – Top Non-QM Originators
#32 – Top Refinance Originators
Damon Germanides:
#9 – Top Mortgage Brokers
#5 – Top Non-QM Originators
#18 – Top Refinance Originators
The rest of the Insignia Mortgage team are also prominently featured:
Romy Nourafchan: #29 Top Broker, #139 Top Refinance, #153 Top HELOC
Neil Patel: #53 Top Broker, #22 Top Non-QM Originator
Scott Sealey: Ranked #235 among Top Brokers nationally, first year on the Top Originator List
This level of performance is rare and reflects a commitment to excellence, creativity, and an unrivaled understanding of the residential mortgage market.
Founders Who Lead by Example
Insignia Mortgage is more than a company—it’s the result of decades of leadership, vision, and resilience.
Chris Furie, with over 35 years of experience, has built a reputation as one of the most knowledgeable and trusted professionals in Southern California real estate finance. His work has helped redefine what it means to deliver concierge-level mortgage advisory services for affluent and complex borrowers.
Damon Germanides, now in his 21st year in the business, has distinguished himself through his expertise in structuring customized Non-QM and jumbo mortgage solutions. His focus on precision, transparency, and long-term relationships makes him a favorite among investors and financial advisors alike.
The Insignia Advantage
What sets Insignia Mortgage apart is its deep bench of talent and its boutique-style approach to client service. The firm specializes in:
Non-QM and jumbo loan solutions for complex borrower profiles
Tailored loan structures for self-employed, high-net-worth individuals
Fast, reliable closings backed by deep lender relationships
A high-touch, consultative experience from application to funding
As independent mortgage brokers, the Insignia team isn’t tied to any single lender or underwriting standard. That flexibility translates into more options—and better outcomes—for clients navigating competitive real estate markets.
Trusted by Investors, Realtors, and Financial Advisors
Real estate investors, luxury agents, and high-end developers repeatedly turn to Insignia for one reason: results. The firm’s ability to structure loans that other providers can’t—or won’t—consider makes it a powerful strategic partner in today’s market.
Whether financing a multi-unit property, leveraging a portfolio of assets, or optimizing tax strategies through mortgage structuring, Insignia brings clarity and confidence to every deal.
A Legacy Still in the Making… Let’s Grow Together.
Being named to the Scotsman Guide Top Originators list for over ten consecutive years is a reflection of talent, trust, and tireless dedication. But at Insignia Mortgage, the team isn’t resting on past achievements—they’re raising the bar, year after year.
For investors, agents, and borrowers seeking elite mortgage solutions, Insignia Mortgage remains the gold standard.
Interested in working with one of the nation’s top-ranked mortgage teams?
At Insignia Mortgage, we pride ourselves on delivering exceptional service and expertise in every transaction—and that commitment is exemplified by our own Scott Sealey. Insignia Mortgage has ranked on Scotsman Guide’s Top Originators list for the past decade, and we’re so pleased to celebrate Scott’s inaugural success this 2025 as a Top Mortgage Broker.
With over 30 years of experience in the mortgage industry, Scott has built a reputation for solving even the most complex loan scenarios. His journey began in 1992 as a loan officer at Great Western Bank, and since then, he has remained dedicated to helping clients—regardless of the size or scope of the loan.
In 2024, Scott’s consistent performance and client-first approach earned him recognition in the Scotsman Guide, where he was honored for closing over $30 million in loans. It’s a testament to his deep industry knowledge, strategic thinking, and, most importantly, his ability to communicate clearly with clients, referral partners, and investors alike.
Scott’s success reflects the values we uphold at Insignia Mortgage: personalized service, expert guidance, and a relentless drive to deliver results. We’re proud to have him on our team and look forward to seeing what he accomplishes next.
(1) Disclosures
(1) No Tax Return loans and foreign national loan products require other forms of income documentation and asset verification in lieu of tax returns. Not all applicants will qualify. Some products we offer may have a higher interest rate, more points or more fees than other products requiring more extensive or different documentation. (2) Minimum FICO, reserve, and other requirements apply. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. Rates, points, APRs and programs are subject to change without notice. Loan to values (LTV) are based on appraised value. Actual closing times will vary based on borrower qualifications and loan terms. All loans are subject to credit approval. (3) With an interest-only mortgage payment, you will not pay down the loan's principal balance during the interest-only period. Once the interest-only period ends, your payments will increase to pay back the principal and interest. Rates are subject to increase over the life of the loan. Contact your Insignia Mortgage, Inc. loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the interest-only period ends. (4) With an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), once the fixed rate period ends, the loan payment will adjust after an initial period and then adjust on a regular basis as set forth in the loan documents. For example, a “3/1” loan will have an interest adjustment 3 years after the loan closes and every 12 months thereafter. Also, the loan will be subject to annual and lifetime adjustment caps. Contact your Insignia Mortgage loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the fixed rate period of the loan ends. (5) Insignia Mortgage, Inc., is a real estate broker licensed by the CA Department of Real Estate, DRE #01969620, NMLS #1277691
(2) Disclosures
(1) Minimum FICO, reserve, and other requirements apply. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. Rates, points, APRs and programs are subject to change without notice. Actual closing times will vary based on borrower qualifications and loan terms. All loans are subject to credit approval. (2) “Loan to Cost” (LTC) is defined as the acquisition price of the property plus the cost to build as determined by a bank appraisal. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. (3) With an interest-only mortgage payment, you will not pay down the loan's principal balance during the interest-only period. Once the interest-only period ends, your payments will increase to pay back the principal and interest. Rates are subject to increase over the life of the loan. Contact your Insignia Mortgage, Inc. loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the interest-only period ends. (4) With an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), the loan payment will adjust after an initial period and then adjust on a regular basis as set forth in the loan documents. For example, a “3/1” loan will have an interest adjustment 3 years after the loan closes and every 12 months thereafter. Also, the loan will be subject to annual and lifetime adjustment caps. Contact your Insignia Mortgage loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the fixed rate period of the loan ends. (5) Insignia Mortgage, Inc., is a real estate broker licensed by the CA Department of Real Estate, DRE #01969620, NMLS #1277691.
Disclosures
(1) Disclosures
(1) No Tax Return loans and foreign national loan products require other forms of income documentation and asset verification in lieu of tax returns. Not all applicants will qualify. Some products we offer may have a higher interest rate, more points or more fees than other products requiring more extensive or different documentation. (2) Minimum FICO, reserve, and other requirements apply. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. Rates, points, APRs and programs are subject to change without notice. Loan to values (LTV) are based on appraised value. Actual closing times will vary based on borrower qualifications and loan terms. All loans are subject to credit approval. (3) With an interest-only mortgage payment, you will not pay down the loan's principal balance during the interest-only period. Once the interest-only period ends, your payments will increase to pay back the principal and interest. Rates are subject to increase over the life of the loan. Contact your Insignia Mortgage, Inc. loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the interest-only period ends. (4) With an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), once the fixed rate period ends, the loan payment will adjust after an initial period and then adjust on a regular basis as set forth in the loan documents. For example, a “3/1” loan will have an interest adjustment 3 years after the loan closes and every 12 months thereafter. Also, the loan will be subject to annual and lifetime adjustment caps. Contact your Insignia Mortgage loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the fixed rate period of the loan ends. (5) Insignia Mortgage, Inc., is a real estate broker licensed by the CA Department of Real Estate, DRE #01969620, NMLS #1277691
(2) Disclosures
(1) Minimum FICO, reserve, and other requirements apply. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. Rates, points, APRs and programs are subject to change without notice. Actual closing times will vary based on borrower qualifications and loan terms. All loans are subject to credit approval. (2) “Loan to Cost” (LTC) is defined as the acquisition price of the property plus the cost to build as determined by a bank appraisal. Contact your loan officer for additional program guidelines, restrictions, and eligibility requirements. (3) With an interest-only mortgage payment, you will not pay down the loan's principal balance during the interest-only period. Once the interest-only period ends, your payments will increase to pay back the principal and interest. Rates are subject to increase over the life of the loan. Contact your Insignia Mortgage, Inc. loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the interest-only period ends. (4) With an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), the loan payment will adjust after an initial period and then adjust on a regular basis as set forth in the loan documents. For example, a “3/1” loan will have an interest adjustment 3 years after the loan closes and every 12 months thereafter. Also, the loan will be subject to annual and lifetime adjustment caps. Contact your Insignia Mortgage loan officer to determine what your payments might be once the fixed rate period of the loan ends. (5) Insignia Mortgage, Inc., is a real estate broker licensed by the CA Department of Real Estate, DRE #01969620, NMLS #1277691.
Disclosure
Insignia Mortgage corporate NMLS #1277691 and DRE #01969620
