Tag: global economy

Market Commentary 06/13/2025

damon Damon Germanides
June 13, 2025

Rising Geopolitical Risks and Evolving Economic Signals

Market attention is expected to intensify over the weekend as geopolitical tensions rise between Israel and Iran. Equities dropped on Friday following reports of Israeli strikes on key nuclear and strategic sites. Oil prices and bond yields increased, while U.S. Treasuries—typically considered a safe haven—also rallied. Despite yields soaring elsewhere, the rally in Treasuries indicates ongoing market concerns about inflation, the growing U.S. debt burden, and a weakening dollar.

Markets have been relatively calm over the past 45 days, having digested tariff developments, but this new escalation could trigger renewed volatility. Any sustained disruption to oil markets could make energy prices more costly, exacerbating upward pressure on bond yields.

On the inflation front, both CPI and PPI came in lower than expected. However, some analysts suggest the soft prints may reflect pre-buying of goods ahead of tariff implementation. June’s data will provide more clarity. With inflation readings cooling and jobs data remaining stable—but not overly strong—there’s a growing case for the Fed to begin seriously discussing rate cuts. The upcoming Fed meeting will be closely watched, particularly as the White House continues to push for lower rates. The potential conflict in the Middle East only adds complexity to the Fed’s decision-making.

Higher interest rates are progressively weighing on real estate investors, business owners, and private equity. Many investment deals no longer pencil out once adjusted for today’s cost of capital. This is evident across housing, multifamily, and construction financing. Home prices begin to soften as inventory lingers, with lenders tightening guidelines. While prime borrowers still secure approvals, others are being pushed into the non-QM or private credit markets.

Watch for rising auto loan and credit card delinquencies as early signs of consumer strain. Despite strong public market performance, the combined effects of inflation, elevated rates, and a gradually slowing economy take its toll on everyday Americans.

These are the opinions of the author. For financial advice, please talk to your CPA or financial professional.

Market Commentary 04/11/2025

damon Damon Germanides
April 11, 2025

Tariffs, Volatility & Mortgage Market Whiplash

The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff announcements sent global equity and bond markets into a tailspin, driving the CNN Fear & Greed Index down to a 4. We are now at levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis or the shock of COVID. While the current backdrop may not be as severe, investor panic is evident. Since World War II, global growth has relied on comparative economics — countries focusing on what they produce best and trading for the rest. But persistent U.S. trade deficits have led this administration to push for a more level playing field, targeting tariffs and VAT-related pricing disadvantages overseas. The scale of the proposals, however, rattled bond markets and led to a temporary pullback in policy.

Mortgage rates dipped briefly as the 10-year Treasury yield touched below 4%, but that rally was short-lived. The reversal wasn’t driven by inflation data — CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected — but rather by fears of tariff-induced inflation. Manufacturers are now in a bind and consumer confidence is weakening, which makes passing on higher input costs difficult. As a result, we face potential margin compression, weaker earnings, and continued market volatility.

One bright spot for consumers: oil has dropped below $60/barrel, easing some cost-of-living pressures. And while equity markets have pulled back roughly 10% from recent highs, this correction may be a healthy repricing after an extended period of overvaluation.

In the housing market, expect:

  • Price adjustments as buyers grow more cautious
  • Cash-out refinances by self-employed borrowers seeking liquidity
  • Tighter underwriting as lenders brace for inflation, recession risk, and asset repricing
  • More loan applications moving to the non-QM or private credit space due to tightened credit box by big banks (bank statement loans, no-income verification loans, DSCR loans, bridge loans).

On the interest rate front, Wall Street is split — from zero to four cuts forecasted this year. Based on borrower sentiment and softening labor trends, we believe the Fed may deliver 1–2 rate cuts. Consumers are watching their wallets, and business owners are becoming more defensive.

If the Fed does ease later this year, it could bring much-needed relief to mortgage rates — a welcomed boost for the housing sector.

Market Commentary 03/21/2025

damon Damon Germanides
March 21, 2025

Market Recap & Key Economic Indicators

Stocks ended the week in positive territory after another period of volatility. The Federal Reserve maintained its stance on interest rates, opting for a “wait and see” approach instead of initiating rate cuts. Key takeaways from the Fed’s latest commentary suggest that the economy remains stable, with a slight expected increase in unemployment—though not significant enough to justify a major policy shift. The Fed continues to project positive GDP growth for the year.

One area of concern was the Fed’s discussion on tariffs and their inflationary impact. While tariffs may introduce one-time cost increases for certain goods, it’s worth noting that imports account for approximately 15% of the total U.S. GDP. As a result, the overall impact on inflation may be less severe than some forecasts suggest. That said, tariff uncertainties continue to create market disruptions, though the broader U.S. economy may absorb these effects more constructively than many anticipate.

Oil, Bonds, and Interest Rates

The ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia and its potential to resolve the conflict threatens to put downward pressure on oil prices. Historically, bond yields and oil prices have moved in tandem, meaning that a decline in oil could contribute to lower interest rates. With oil as a fundamental input cost across multiple industries, any drop in energy prices would also help temper inflationary pressures.

Breakdown of U.S. Treasury Debt: The composition of outstanding U.S. Treasury debt is as follows:

  • $6.4 trillion in Treasury bills (maturing in one year or less)
  • $14.7 trillion in Treasury notes (maturing in 2-10 years)
  • $4.9 trillion in Treasury bonds (20- and 30-year maturities)
  • $2.0 trillion in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
  • $0.63 trillion in Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)

With a significant portion of this debt rolling over from historically low interest rates, concerns around the U.S. interest expense and rising deficit spending are intensifying. Many economists and bond traders believe the nation is approaching a tipping point, where ongoing deficit growth and increasing debt-servicing costs may become unsustainable.

Housing Market & Economic Indicators to Watch

February’s existing home sales came in stronger than expected, a positive sign for those operating in the existing home sales market. After nearly two years of muted activity, there are early indications that homebuyers may be gradually returning. While better home sales support a strong economy, other signals suggest the economy is slowing. Mixed signals make forecasting difficult.

Given the uncertain economic environment, we are closely monitoring the following key indicators to assess the direction of interest rates and overall market conditions:

  1. Oil prices – A leading indicator of inflationary pressures
  2. 2-year vs. 10-year Treasury yield spread – A key gauge of economic sentiment and recession risk
  3. Weekly unemployment claims – A real-time measure of labor market health
  4. Automobile loan delinquencies – A potential warning sign of consumer financial stress
  5. Housing starts – A crucial indicator of real estate market momentum

All eyes now turn to next week’s CPI and PPI prints. For residential real estate to regain momentum, the market will need a catalyst—either lower prices or lower interest rates. Stay tuned and make sure you’re subscribed to Insignia Mortgage’s Market Commentary for the latest updates and rates.

These are the opinions of the author. For financial advice, please talk to your CPA or financial professional.

Market Commentary 02/01/2025

damon Damon Germanides
February 1, 2025

Broad Thoughts On Economy, Real Estate & Direction Of Interest Rates

Market Volatility and Economic Trends

This past week saw significant market swings, with technology-focused equities taking a sharp hit on news that Chinese firm Deep Seek may have developed a more efficient and cost-effective way to use large language models. Nonetheless, U.S. equities rebounded by the end of the week, as buy-the-dip investors capitalized on lower entry prices. Mid-week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convened, and kept short-term rates unchanged as expected, maintaining their wait-and-see approach. Bond yields remained flat following the announcement. However, late Friday, equities dropped lower and bond yields rose higher after President Trump announced new tariffs on a range of imports, with the markets reacting to the potential inflationary impact of trade restrictions.

Inflation and Housing Market Pressures

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), met expectations. However, inflation appears to be flattening rather than falling, meaning that prices are still rising—aggravating the cumulative cost of living increases over the past several years. Housing costs have climbed alongside interest rates, creating an affordability crisis for younger home buyers, step-up borrowers, and empty nesters. Many homeowners remain reluctant to sell, unwilling to give up 3% mortgage rates in favor of significantly higher financing costs. This dynamic has stifled the existing home market while benefiting large homebuilders, who can offer mortgage buy-downs, build at scale, and outcompete smaller builders on cost.

Banking and Distressed Real Estate Opportunities

Anecdotally, some banks that anticipated lower rates by now are reassessing their approach to impaired borrowers. Higher input and financing costs and rising cap rates have made real estate investing challenging—except for those in private credit. If banks begin applying pressure, opportunities for distressed property acquisitions could emerge regionally.

Credit Markets and Speculation

Corporate interest rate spreads remain historically tight, suggesting too much liquidity chasing too few deals. The ongoing speculation in crypto, AI, and meme stocks further reinforces the idea that cash remains abundant in the financial system. While some industries—such as real estate, manufacturing, and autos— struggle due to reliance on low debt yields, many sectors appear largely unaffected by higher interest rates.

Market Commentary 12/07/2024

damon Damon Germanides
December 7, 2024

Bitcoin, The Fed, and Interest Rates

One might expect interest rates to be higher as financial markets surge, and speculative stocks and cryptocurrencies climb almost daily. While the November non-farm employment report exceeded expectations slightly, it was close enough to consensus to make a ¼ point Fed Funds rate cut likely later this month. Once again, the U.S. remains the global leader for investment, driven by ongoing challenges in Europe—such as the no-confidence vote in France—and the declaration of martial law in South Korea. These geopolitical issues have bolstered the “safe-haven” trade, contributing to lower domestic yields. That said, we would not be surprised to see interest rates drift higher given these economic and market tailwinds.

Current interest rate levels are not particularly restrictive, as financial conditions appear fairly loose. Spreads on corporate debt remain tight, and capital continues to flow into riskier assets. However, parts of the market are signaling excessive risk appetite. For instance, the use of leverage in cryptocurrency and meme stock trading is concerning, as it magnifies both gains on the way up and losses on the way down. The notion that markets can only move higher is worrisome (remember trees don’t grow to the sky), but momentum is currently driving trends upward and investors are feeling confident for the moment.

Impact on Real Estate

Today’s market environment is driving increased activity in the real estate lending space:

  1. Increased Loan Activity: Business owners, buoyed by post-election confidence, are reinvesting in their businesses, leading to more refinances and lines of credit.
  2. Active Homebuyers: Buyers who were previously on the sidelines are now actively searching for homes, encouraged by an improving economic outlook.
  3. New Loan Products: Banks, both large and boutique, are ramping up for 2025 with innovative loan programs to drive volume. Borrowers and lenders alike are eager to transact, creating optimism for the year ahead.

We remain optimistic about 2025, as both the demand for lending and the willingness of banks to provide capital appear to be aligning positively. Borrowers have accepted higher rates and the need to transact is trumping the need to wait for lower interest rates. 

Finally, please find below an article written by Insignia Mortgage’s co-founder, Damon Germanides, on the critical role of mortgage brokers in today’s market. At Insignia Mortgage, we dedicate significant effort to identifying unique lenders to meet the needs of our diverse clientele. We hope you find the article insightful:

Read the Article: Mortgage Brokers Will Excel With the Cheap Debt Era Over

Market Commentary 11/01/2024

victoria chuidian
November 1, 2024

Bonds Yields Rise As Markets Brace for Election & Fed Meeting

Interest rates are on the rise as a weak Jobs report showed the addition of only 12,000 new jobs. Bond traders reacted unexpectedly to the news, with the market’s focus shifting to the growing U.S. deficit and the risk of persistent inflation. Of particular concern is the fact that neither presidential candidate has presented a plan to address the deficit, while the bond market appears to be signaling disapproval of continued government spending. With long-term Treasury yields rising since the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut in September, we’re closely watching the 2-year Treasury as a proxy for next week’s Fed meeting. While a 25 basis point cut is anticipated, some experts suggest a pause might be more prudent, given the recent upward trend in rates and mixed economic signals

There’s an argument that current interest rates aren’t overly restrictive despite numerous factors like steady GDP growth, improved consumer confidence, a strong stock market, speculative crypto activity, tight underwriting, narrow bond spreads, and persistent wage inflation. For many individuals and businesses that secured historically low rates, recent rate fluctuations have had minimal impact. Additionally, with money market yields near 5% and rising housing and equity values, higher inflation may benefit wealthier Americans.

There may be an additional silver lining for real estate professionals. Many homeowners have held onto properties longer than planned, and home builders are running out of incentive options. If rates stabilize, home prices may need to adjust downward, which could entice prospective buyers off the sidelines.

Market Commentary 06/07/2024

damon Damon Germanides
June 7, 2024

Stronger Than Expected May Jobs Data Pressures Bonds

We were initially encouraged by the JOLTS report which showed signs of a cooling economy as interest rates trended lower, earlier this week. However, Friday’s much better-than-expected May jobs report exceeded expectations for job creation and wage growth, reversing this trend. As a result, interest rates surged, and the likelihood of a Fed rate cut has been pushed to September. Those hoping for rate cuts are focusing on the rise in the unemployment rate to 4% as a sign of a subtly eroding economy.

While there are early signs of consumer stress, such as rising credit card balances and commercial real estate defaults, it is difficult to justify a near-term rate cut after today’s employment report. Cumulative inflation has been a significant drag on our most vulnerable citizens. However, the consumer remains in good shape overall. The stock market is at record highs, with a resurgence of FOMO, reminiscent of the Gamestock mania. We will listen closely to Chairman Powell’s insights on the economy and the direction of rates. The anticipated pain that Powell suggested would be needed to bring inflation down never fully materialized. With the upper 30% of the US population enjoying strong home price appreciation, stock market wealth, and rising wages, the loosening of financial conditions may stoke further inflation.

Trending In Real Estate Finance

Smaller banks and creative lenders are making exceptions on home loans that make sense. We are seeing some banks begin to waive income requirements for very liquid borrowers, increase debt-to-income ratio limits to 60% for the right profiles, and accept a credit blemish or two with a good explanation. Given the slowing existing home sale market, lenders who can lend are doing what they can to approve loans. This is significantly helping good borrowers secure home loans that they would have easily qualified for just a few years ago. Notably, interest rates remain range-bound, and lenders remain eager for business, with our best-priced lenders offering rates under 6% for well-heeled applicants.

Market Commentary 5/3/2024

damon Damon Germanides
May 3, 2024

Fed Believes Inflation Will Decline Without Further Rate Hikes 

Markets found solace as the Fed committed to returning inflation to 2% without the need for further interest rate hikes. The April Jobs Report was disappointing while jobs growth came in lower than expected, pushing yields on Treasuries and mortgage-related products lower. April non-farm unemployment clocked in at 3.9% up a tick and hourly wage growth cooled, a data point that must stabilize for the Fed to begin lowering rates.  

The economy’s trajectory remains uncertain, compounded by the unprecedented government spending in response to Covid. The influx of funds continues to impact the economy in unforeseen ways, challenging traditional economic models’ predictive accuracy. 

Overall, the economy remains a mixed bag and is a fool’s errand predicting where interest rates and the financial system are headed.  Even the Fed, with a world of data and Ph.D.’s, has been wrong during the last few years. With trillions of dollars moving through our economy, many economic models were not designed to interpret this type of spending with accuracy.     

Keep an eye on the Treasury issuance as the Government has increased the money it will need to borrow for Government funding.  This may put a floor on interest rates overall.  However, for the moment a 10-year Treasury of around 4.50% feels about right given the uncertainty in the world. 

Market Commentary 4/19/2024

damon Damon Germanides
April 19, 2024

Economic and Geopolitical Pressures Weight On Bonds

Today’s market landscape is challenging to handicap due to global politics and Federal Reserve actions. Risky investments, including high-beta momentum stocks like artificial intelligence, are facing pressure. The market is adjusting to the possibility of fewer rate cuts this year—even just one or none. The Fed has changed course due to ongoing inflation, strong job numbers, solid retail sales, and positive manufacturing data. These factors indicate that rate cuts may be on hold for now. Additionally, with oil prices above $80 per barrel, significant drops in interest rates are unlikely. Despite global efforts to reduce fossil fuel reliance, our economy remains tied to oil, impacting interest rates and inflation.

Interest rates remain higher than expected despite market fluctuations. This persistent high can be attributed to ongoing inflation, a challenging economy, and substantial government debt issuance. The Wall Street Journal reported that mortgage rates for standard loans have risen above 7%. Meanwhile, home sales have dipped during what is typically the busiest season, presenting challenges for buyers facing high prices and limited options in coastal cities.

The rising cost of living may soon affect the housing market. Over time, some homeowners may be compelled to sell to access cash, particularly if equity markets experience corrections. Major companies like Netflix and Nvidia have already seen significant downturns.

It appears that market optimism regarding rate cuts was premature. The recent market dynamics require investors and homebuyers to approach decisions with caution. The Federal Reserve, under its chairman’s leadership, faces a complex scenario that is somewhat concerning. Although the bond market seems oversold, lower rates may not materialize for some time. It is essential to remain vigilant and prepared for various outcomes. Keep a close watch on commercial real estate, as the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance is becoming a significant issue for some asset classes. Remember, volatile times also bring opportunities for well-informed and patient investors.

Market Commentary 02/09/2024

damon Damon Germanides
February 9, 2024

Direction Of Economy Uncertain As S&P Breaks 5K 

If you’re feeling confused about the economy’s trajectory, you’re not alone. As a recap, the stock market has been soaring to new heights driven largely by the optimism surrounding AI. Certain high-frequency indicators like auto and credit card delinquencies have spiked. Inflation levels are off at a rate over 20% higher than in previous years. Finally, many in the US remain unsettled about their future as they are forced to live paycheck to paycheck, even while earning over $100K per year. 

Just weeks ago, Wall Street anticipated six or more rate hikes, but now forecasts have been revised down to perhaps four. Ongoing hints from the Fed suggest potential interest rate reductions by mid-year. We reiterate inflation is public enemy number one and that is why the Fed will move very carefully with rate reductions.  

Despite ongoing challenges, the housing market remains resilient, with homeowners reluctant to part with their low-rate mortgages. Nonetheless, the limited housing supply continues to strain affordability. Paradoxically, lower interest rates could stimulate existing home inventory, alleviating supply constraints and offering more choices to buyers. 

Commercial real estate, particularly office spaces, is facing significant pressure. Prolonged interest rates raised by the Fed may hasten the exposure of poorly underwritten transactions with historically low cap rates, rendering them unfinanceable. Additional events, such as the collapse of a large European real estate fund (as reported in the WSJ) hint at more difficulties ahead for this sector. 

Amidst robust economic data, low unemployment, and a thriving stock market, long-term interest rates are likely to remain relatively stable for now. Our forecast of the 10-year Treasury trading between 4% to 4.5% remains consistent, with inflation settling around 3%.