Market Commentary 06/21/2024

damon Damon Germanides
June 21, 2024

Housing Inventory Remains Tight As Mortgage Rates Drift Lower

Existing Home Sales: Trends and Insights

Existing home sales data has confirmed what industry insiders already knew: home inventory is extremely tight in many parts of the country. California is no exception. Home valuations continue to rise despite increased interest rates. There is growing optimism that interest rates have leveled off. Should rates drift lower, there’s a possibility for an increase in existing home inventory. Additional inventory could pressure sellers, but it would provide potential buyers more options across affordable, mid, and luxury home spaces up to $5M, significantly boosting activity.

The Rise of Non-QM Loans

Non-QM loans, typically offered by smaller banks, credit unions, and mortgage banks, provide more favorable guidelines, higher debt-to-income ratios, and interest-only products for borrowers who can’t qualify through traditional means. These “individual lending” loans do not rely on rigid guidelines. Instead, they focus on bank reserves, bank statement cash flow, foreign income, or rental income to qualify borrowers. Despite concerns about a repeat of 2008, these loans go through robust underwriting and require significant borrower investment, contributing to their strong performance since their introduction about a decade ago. Insignia Mortgage has identified non-QM lenders that are now comfortable with larger loan sizes up to $10M. 

Economic Outlook and Mortgage Rates

The economy presents a mixture of good and bad data. Technological advancements have created efficiencies, which some forecasters believe will lead to lower rates. However, input costs, commodity costs, and service costs remain high, hurting small business owners. Government debt remains a worry and needs to be monitored as the deficit continues to balloon. However, recent Fed comments have given the all-clear for banks to gradually lower rates. A+ borrowers will start seeing offers under 6%, and non-QM borrowers will find rates in the high 6’s to low 7’s, benefiting the existing home sales market.

Indicators for Mortgage Rate Trends

Monitoring oil prices and the 2- and 10-year Treasuries provides insights into mortgage rate trends. Oil prices and interest rates are closely correlated, moving symbiotically. The 2-year Treasury is a good proxy for shorter-term jumbo ARM pricing, such as 5-year ARMs, while the 10-year Treasury serves as a proxy for jumbo 10-year ARMs. For instance, with the 10-year Treasury down about 35 basis points recently, many jumbo lenders have lowered rates on their 7- and 10-year ARM products by about 25 basis points, offering a reliable estimate of rate direction and potential decreases.

Market Commentary 06/07/2024

damon Damon Germanides
June 7, 2024

Stronger Than Expected May Jobs Data Pressures Bonds

We were initially encouraged by the JOLTS report which showed signs of a cooling economy as interest rates trended lower, earlier this week. However, Friday’s much better-than-expected May jobs report exceeded expectations for job creation and wage growth, reversing this trend. As a result, interest rates surged, and the likelihood of a Fed rate cut has been pushed to September. Those hoping for rate cuts are focusing on the rise in the unemployment rate to 4% as a sign of a subtly eroding economy.

While there are early signs of consumer stress, such as rising credit card balances and commercial real estate defaults, it is difficult to justify a near-term rate cut after today’s employment report. Cumulative inflation has been a significant drag on our most vulnerable citizens. However, the consumer remains in good shape overall. The stock market is at record highs, with a resurgence of FOMO, reminiscent of the Gamestock mania. We will listen closely to Chairman Powell’s insights on the economy and the direction of rates. The anticipated pain that Powell suggested would be needed to bring inflation down never fully materialized. With the upper 30% of the US population enjoying strong home price appreciation, stock market wealth, and rising wages, the loosening of financial conditions may stoke further inflation.

Trending In Real Estate Finance

Smaller banks and creative lenders are making exceptions on home loans that make sense. We are seeing some banks begin to waive income requirements for very liquid borrowers, increase debt-to-income ratio limits to 60% for the right profiles, and accept a credit blemish or two with a good explanation. Given the slowing existing home sale market, lenders who can lend are doing what they can to approve loans. This is significantly helping good borrowers secure home loans that they would have easily qualified for just a few years ago. Notably, interest rates remain range-bound, and lenders remain eager for business, with our best-priced lenders offering rates under 6% for well-heeled applicants.

Market Commentary 05/31/2024

damon Damon Germanides
May 31, 2024

Rates Drift Lower As Inflation Data Matches Expectations

Despite a bumpy mid-week for bond yields, interest rates recovered following reports of slowing GDP and an as-expected PCE inflation reading. Additionally, a lackluster mid-week Treasury auction rattled the bond market, casting uncertainty amid ongoing US debt issuance. As discussed in previous analyses, a 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.50% appears justified with the current state of the job market, economy, and inflation. While the PCE number came in as expected, the real issue is inflation is not pushing lower and appears stagnant. 

High prices and interest rates have challenged housing affordability, resulting in declining home sales. Nonetheless, the recent surge in equities, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, has exceeded many market forecasts. This surge has notably impacted homebuyers in the $1.5M to $20M price range.

The unexpected rise in equities has contributed to a loosening of financial conditions, complicating the Fed’s stance on interest rate cuts. With the wealthiest 20% experiencing significant asset appreciation, including home and equity values, and high interest rates on their savings, the overall economic outlook remains positive. The consensus now points to one rate cut for 2024, a shift from earlier projections of up to seven cuts at the start of the year. In order to facilitate lower rates, one would need to see a worse-than-expected jobs report or some other major black swan. For now, the higher for longer projection remains intact.

Market Commentary 05/17/2024

damon Damon Germanides
May 17, 2024

Balancing Act: Bonds Rally Amid Mixed Inflation Signals

It was another positive week for bonds as CPI data turned out to be cooler than expected. Inflation concerns eased with a slight dip in mortgage rates by about a quarter point on many products.

However, it’s premature to celebrate just yet, as PPI, or wholesale inflation, turned out hotter than forecast. While companies will always try to pass on input costs, sustained inflation makes transferring these higher prices to the end consumer increasingly challenging. Although a milder CPI print is encouraging, we anticipate the Fed may lower interest rates only once this year, especially given the recent Fed communications suggesting the unlikelihood of a July rate cut.

Despite unemployment being below 4%, a soaring stock market, and consumers still in relatively good shape, the Fed seems inclined towards a “higher for longer” approach with interest rates. There’s a concern that lowering interest rates may fuel animal spirits and exacerbate inflation. Notably, the resurgence of “Roaring Kitty” this week sparked a surge in option trading on some Meme stocks, indicating a shift away from restrictive financial conditions.

Nevertheless, there’s a strong desire to reduce interest rates. If unemployment softens and the unemployment rate hovers around the 4.5% range, then the probability of lowered rates becomes more likely. Lower interest rates would greatly benefit the US Government amidst record deficit spending and the need to fund these deficits with bond issuance.

FNMA Selling Policy Updates 2024: IPC

damon Damon Germanides
May 13, 2024

FNMA has issued 5 Selling Policy updates, signifying a pivotal moment in mortgage lending. Included in these updates, FNMA has clarified the impact of their NAR settlement on IPC caps. If a buyer’s agent commission continues to be a “common and customary” seller cost, it is not counted toward the Interested Party Contribution maximum (between 2% – 9% of the property value).  The standard of “common and customary” has not been formalized and is measured by regional practice. As a recap, under the new system that NAR agreed to in settling the suit, when a home hits the market, listing agents will no longer specify how much the buyer’s agent will be paid. Instead, that fee will be negotiated separately between the buyer and the buyer’s agent. We have included a matrix of the current FNMA IPC maximums below, as well as FHLMC’s matrix for reference. Currently, there is no determination in how the Department of Veterans Affairs will handle potential changes to buyer real estate commissions. Moreover, there is still potential for changes to the FHFA rule that prevents buyers from rolling the listing commission into mortgages. Stay tuned for more updates. Subscribe to our Weekly Market Commentary for more. 

Updated IPC Maximums

Maximum Interested Party Contributions for FNMA loans:

Maximum Interested Party Contributions for FHLMC Loans:

Link to full Selling Policy Updates here.

Market Commentary 5/10/2024

damon Damon Germanides
May 10, 2024

Declining Consumer Confidence Suggests Fragile Economy

We’ve perceived the economy as a mixed bag in the past year, diverging from the rosy outlook of many Wall Street economists. Although official employment and GDP figures indicate strength, the reality for many below the middle class suggests otherwise as individuals juggle multiple jobs to make ends meet. Inflation, often cited as a driver of nominal GDP growth, may be masking underlying economic challenges. This is evident in slowing sales for consumer-oriented businesses like McDonald’s.

Conversely, wealthier segments have thrived amid inflation, benefiting from appreciating asset prices and increased spending power. Nonetheless, recent consumer data suggests widespread struggles. Over the past 60 days, our mortgage brokerage and private lending business have witnessed a surge in requests for traditional and bridge financing, reflecting growing financial strain as the COVID stimulus wanes and inflation persists.

Now, the Fed faces a dilemma. Lowering rates risks exacerbating inflation, yet higher rates strain vulnerable citizens reliant on credit cards, mortgages, and loans. While a rate cut may be delayed until after the election, we’re increasingly optimistic about its likelihood, possibly in a significant manner. We foresee a Fed Funds Rate in the 4%-4.5% range by mid-2025, potentially bolstering the mortgage and housing markets and addressing yield curve inversion. Until then, the real estate sector must weather the storm.

Market Commentary 1/26/2024

damon Damon Germanides
January 26, 2024

US Economy Continues to Impress as Consumer Spending Beats Expectations 

Strong consumer spending and a better-than-expected 4th quarter GDP advocate the soft-landing narrative. The recent PCE inflation report, favored by the Fed, came in as expected with the indication that inflation is cooling. Despite positive economic indicators like a surging stock market, low unemployment, and increased housing activity, there are concerns that the Fed may not lower rates as quickly as some economists suggest. 

Our perspective is that while inflation is cooling, it remains too high when viewed on a 3-year average, which is up over 20%. Wages have not risen at the same pace, leaving consumers with less to spend. Some costs, especially essential expenses, seem to have increased significantly more than 20% when compared to pre-COVID levels. 

There are a few reasons why mortgage rates are showing improvement, and some products have rates below 6.00%. First, with the Fed signaling the end of its hiking cycle, banks can better forecast their cost of funds and price mortgage products along the yield curve. Second, mortgage spreads are tightening, leading to lower rates. Furthermore, with the start of 2024, each bank has new production goals, increasing competition and keeping banks honest on pricing. This is positive news for the housing market and the residential real estate community. 

Turning to national debt and the consumer, the national deficit is over $34 trillion (about $100,000 per person in the US) and is a growing concern. Overspending was once considered a problem for future generations and is now a pressing issue. While there’s no immediate risk of a government default, there’s concern that if bond vigilantes demand higher yields due to perceived risk, bond yields could rise despite the Fed lowering short-term interest rates. While the likelihood of this happening in the short term remains low, it’s worth monitoring. 

Credit card spending remains robust, indicating that consumers are optimistic about the future. However, credit card balances and delinquencies are rising, suggesting that borrowed money is not being repaid as quickly as before. This shift in credit card data, often seen as a high-frequency economic indicator, could be a sign of the economy’s health, with consumers generally in good shape. 

In conversations with various business owners, we observe a mixed economic landscape. Some businesses are thriving, some face challenges, and others remain uncertain about the future. Although the economy appears to be in better shape than expected last year, it remains fragile. Nonetheless, overall business sentiment is more optimistic than the previous year, a benefit to the existing home market while real estate brokers prepare for the busy spring season. 

Market Commentary 1/12/2024

damon Damon Germanides
January 12, 2024

Bond Market Believes Lower Inflation Here To Stay 

For the moment, the bond market is betting on lower interest rates despite a better-than-expected December Jobs report and a hotter-than-forecast CPI print. PPI, or wholesale inflation, helped reinforce the belief that inflation should continue to trend downward, a view we share but with some skepticism. Several hot spots around the world remain and a flair-up of any could adversely affect both the oil and shipping markets, thus creating inflation. For now, that has not happened, but it does remain a concern. Of additional anxiety is the massive Treasury issuance.  This could push interest rates up, but again, for now, the trend is lower rates.  Expectations of lower inflation and increased business confidence have also improved and there is a sense that the Fed may pull off their so-called “soft landing.” We remain cautiously optimistic. Keep a close eye on the coming earnings seasons as a tell to how the economy is performing. More on this in the coming weeks.

The drop in mortgage rates has inspired new applications as activity is picking up across all markets. Also, mortgage prices have benefited from the compression in the spread, which has been unusually high this past year and remains elevated.  Banks seem to be in a better mood as we enter 2024.  All of this is welcomed after a challenging 2023. The combination of Treasury rates under 4% plus tighter margins is leading to some jumbo lenders now offering rates in the 5.500% with banking.       

Market Commentary 1/05/2024

damon Damon Germanides
January 5, 2024

December Jobs Report Keeps Rates Flat

A better-than-expected Jobs Report pushed interest rates above 4% this morning before retreating down. A deeper dive into the Jobs Report suggests the jobs market may be cooling off. With a drop in the participation rate, more temp workers are unable to find jobs and more people accepting part-time work or working fewer hours. Employers remain cautious about firing workers given the difficulty experienced in replacing those workers during COVID and post-COVID. Of additional concern is wage growth, which is still running at 4% plus, a number higher than the Fed would like to see. On Wall Street, some believe the report was good enough to keep the Fed on pause through at least March, perhaps even longer.  

Inflation has cooled on the goods front, but wage and service inflation are still too high. Geopolitical worries abound including the Israel-Palestine conflict, which is starting to create issues with major shipping vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, causing a rise in shipping costs and potentially oil prices. The worry here is that one wrong move could spark a regional war which could have unintended consequences, including an oil spike, which could complicate the Fed’s inflation fight.  However, that is an obvious problem so the markets may have already priced in this outcome. One never does know.

We have spoken previously about the path to 5% mortgage rates and we are getting closer. One requirement to reaching this goal is that the mortgage spreads over Treasuries must continue to compress. The Wall Street Journal reported today that this is finally happening, with the expectation that should Treasury rates fall further, the mortgage spread would also follow.

A big reason spreads have been so wide is that banks and investors have been concerned about a drop in interest rates and the refinance risk associated with those drops. With the quick decline from 5% to 4% in the 10-year treasury, lenders are starting to get more competitive on pricing. In addition, another tailwind for real estate brokers and mortgage originators alike is the start of a new year and new volume targets so pricing remains sharp, which has led to much-improved activity to establish the year.

A quick look at programs and types of borrowers

  • High Net worth with banking:                      
    • Rates from 5.250%/6.196% APR. Loan amounts up to $25M
  • Complex high net worth with banking:         
    • Rates from 6.000%/6.488%. Loan amounts to $10M
  • Traditional Jumbo:                                                
    • Rates from 6.000%/6.488%. Loan amounts to $4M
  • No Income Verification Loans:                         
    • Rates from 7.500%/7.603%. Loan amounts up to $2.5M
  • Conforming Loans:                                               
    • Rates from 5.875%/6.032%. Loan amounts up to $1,149,825

Happy New Year!

Market Commentary 12.15.2023

damon Damon Germanides
December 15, 2023

Fed Forecast To Bring Down Rates Pushes Mortgage Rates Lower

The recent dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, along with projections of up to three rate cuts next year, brought a sigh of relief to the markets. Equities, bonds, gold, and oil, all rallied in response. This shift by the Fed signaled a so-called “soft-landing” narrative. Inflation data has been pointing toward lower inflation as the economy continues to move forward with weak manufacturing data, but a strong service sector.

Mortgage rates also saw a significant drop, with 30-year mortgages now below 6.50%, and adjustable-rate mortgages anticipated to dip below 6%. This is a remarkable change from just a few weeks ago when mortgage products were touching 8%. Let’s delve into the reasons behind this sudden change of heart by the Fed and the markets.

Inflation Trends

Consumer and producer inflation data have been showing positive trends for quite some time. With inflation on the decline, the Fed Funds Rate, currently at 5.37%, stands well above the inflation rate (CPI) of 3.1%. This significant spread is viewed as restrictive, and now the Fed must consider if keeping rates higher for an extended period might do more harm than good. Additionally, signs of a slowing economy are emerging, which further supports the case for lowering interest rates.

Inverted Yield Curve

The yield curve has been inverted for an extended period, and the Fed would like to see it normalize. This normalization would benefit lenders who borrow short and lend long. When long-term interest rates are lower than short-term interest rates, it becomes challenging for lenders to generate profits due to the negative spread. A robust economy requires lenders willing to extend credit. Moreover, the massive US debt and the costs associated with servicing that debt become unsustainable at higher interest rates.

Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The ongoing QT (Quantitative Tightening) may provide the Fed with some flexibility to lower short-term interest rates and allow bonds to run off their balance sheet. Over the past decade, global central banks’ money printing and bond buying have led to enduring issues, as the cost of money became distorted. By lowering the Fed Funds Rate while continuing QT, the Fed remains somewhat restrictive but with a bit less tightening.

Nonetheless, we still anticipate a 10-year Treasury yield north of 4% and encourage clients to pursue financing at these current rates. We believe that the journey from 3% to 2% inflation will be challenging, and the so-called neutral rate of interest will likely settle above 3%. When you add a term premium of 1% to 1.5%, that’s where the 10-year Treasury should find its equilibrium.

10 Year Treasury & Employment

As previously stated, we continue to anticipate a 10-year Treasury yield north of 4% and encourage clients to pursue financing at these current rates. We believe that the journey from 3% to 2% inflation will be challenging, and the so-called neutral rate of interest will likely settle above 3%. Employment remains tight and wages appear to be sticky (and possibly rising again) which will continue to be monitored by the Fed. This could inhibit interest rates from going much lower than current levels.

For the moment, we will take the late-year gift from the Fed of the prospect of lower interest rates which is leading to a big pickup in borrower inquiries.