In another volatile week in the markets, the September jobs report helped soothe recession fears with a report that came in close to estimates. After a poor ISM reading (Institute of Supply Management) and service sector reading earlier in the week, some forecasters were fearing a terrible jobs number. We are happy to report that this not come to fruition. While we are certain that volatility will be a given, it is hard to argue that a recession is on the horizon considering the very low 3.500% unemployment rate.
The September jobs report was solid for a number of reasons. First, the market was primed to expect a major dud. Secondly, there were upward revisions from the past previous reports (i.e. there have been even more people working). Thirdly, unemployment dipped to a 50-year low and the U-6 reading, which includes those working part-time and those “discouraged” workers who’ve stopped job-hunting, dipped to 6.9%. Finally, wage inflation is under control which puts a lid on bond yields.
Housing has rebounded, and low-interest rates are boosting mortgage applications. Lower monthly housing payments free money up in consumers’ budgets, which can be spent on other goods and services, which helps the overall economy.
With the September jobs report behind us, and the 10-year Treasury yielding around 1.51%, we are recommending locking-in loans at this level. While rates could go lower, it is hard to imagine a <1% 10-year Treasury yield for the moment, given the current generally healthy state of the U.S. economy.
Mortgage bonds had another good week as interest rates remain low. This week served up several market-moving headlines highlighted by impeachment headlines, positive news on the U.S.- China trade talks, and good housing numbers. Inflation picked up a touch, with the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE, ticking up to 1.8% annualized inflation rate from a previous reading of 1.6%. However, this annual rate of inflation is still below the Fed’s 2% target and for the moment a non-threat to the bond market. Inflation and economic expectations for the future are what drive longer-dated bonds.
Next week will be a big week with the September jobs report. Given the slowdown in manufacturing and the recent lower reading on consumer confidence, we will be watching the jobs report with much interest. The U.S. economy has been resilient through the present moment and is the envy of the developed world. The big question has been how long can the U.S. continue to outperform other large economies. The jobs report will shed some important light on this question.
In housing news, the National Association of REALTORS® reported a pick up in homes under contract, thanks to lower interest rates. With interest rates near all-time lows, we continue to believe that locking-in interest rates are the way to go as playing the market is simply too risky, especially with lenders near capacity.
Stocks surged mid-week in response to some positive news regarding the news that the U.S. and China may be returning to the negotiating table on trade talks. Also, the U.S. economy, while slowing, appears to be in pretty good shape for the moment. The August jobs report was lower than expected but had no real effect on stocks and bonds. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.70%, and while the report suggests the economy is slowing, there were no real surprises within the report.
However, multiple mixed signals regarding recession persist. It is hard to reconcile the various reports as there many cross-currents on the direction of both the economy. Interest rates and bond yields are flashing different signals. Recently published manufacturing data in the U.S. is worrisome and support the need for lower rates to boost growth, but better than expected economic data out of China suggest otherwise. An inverted yield curve in the U.S. (indicating a potential recession) support the argument that U.S. interest rate policy may be too tight, but low inflation and low unemployment suggest that interest rate policy may be near neutral and on target. Strong consumer spending and high levels of small business optimism argue strongly against the recession outcome, while a global slowdown and negative yields in Europe and Japan are an ominous signal of a recession or worse in the coming 24 months.
What has been great for many homeowners or those buyers sitting on the sidelines is that low-interest rates are either lowering monthly expenses or helping new home buyers qualify for a bigger mortgage or a better quality home. We continue to be in the rate-lock camp and continue to advise clients to take advantage of the 10-year Treasury note at ~1.500% which has pushed loan rates way down.
Bond yields touched the lowest level since 2016 in a jam-packed information-filled week which included reporting on inflation and the monthly jobs report, the Fed Open Market Committee meeting, and renewed threats of increased tariffs on China.
The core PCE reading for June, the Fed’s favorite inflation reading, came in a tick lower than expected. Inflation remains a major conundrum for global central bankers. Even with ongoing massive stimulus programs in place, inflation readings in developed countries remain below targets. This is one of the big concerns for the Fed and is one of the main reasons that the Fed is comfortable lowering short term lending rates.
As expected, the Fed reduced short term lending rates on Wednesday by one-quarter of one percent. Equity markets fell during Chairman Powell’s press conference when he suggested that further Fed easing might not be necessary although not altogether ruled out either. Equity markets have become addicted to accommodative policies and stock pickers were looking for confirmation of ongoing rate reductions.
Trade discussions with China took a turn for the worse on Thursday, which is a big challenge facing the economy. It is hard to handicap how the trade dispute will influence monetary policy and what influence these talks will have on businesses. However, one should pay close attention to bond yields which dropped soon after the White House announcement. With some sectors of the economy slowing, the fear is the added costs of tariffs at both the business and consumer level could push the U.S. into recession sometime in 2020.
Friday saw a good June Jobs report with 164,000 new jobs created in the private sector. Unemployment remains near historic lows at 3.7%. This report supports the narrative of a strong domestic economy. However, the positive news on job creation was overshadowed by the trade tariffs threats made the previous day.
Rates are now so low absent a full-blown recession which does not appear to be likely near term, it is hard to argue against locking in interest rates. With many mortgage products at ultra-low levels, this has spurred both refinance and purchase activity. The monthly savings should be good for consumer spending and may keep real estate prices from falling further.
U.S. economic growth remains solid and better than many economists thought was possible just a few years ago, though it’s still below the White House’s goal of 4% growth. However, our strong U.S. economy is halting the move to lower yields as all eyes are fixed on the action-packed economic calendar next week which includes the Core PCE reading, the Fed meeting, and the July jobs report.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2019 rose 2.1%, down from 3.1% in Q1 though a surge in consumer and business spending. This pushed the personal consumption expenditures index higher by 4.5%, the best since Q4 2017. Recent tariffs and a global economic slowdown stunted growth somewhat in Q2 though a GDP with a 2% handle is still solid.
2nd quarter earnings proved better than expected as stocks continue to trade well on the good earnings coming out of some of the world’s biggest companies. Interest rates remain low and consumer and business confidence remains high. With the Fed set to lower the short-term lending rates between .25% and .5%, fears of recession have been taken off the table for the time being.
With a resilient U.S. economy and the unemployment rate under 4%, we continue to appreciate long-term interest rates around 2%, but also watchful of a move higher in interest rates here in the U.S. if inflation ticks up. However, one could argue that the U.S. economy does not need lower rates given the ongoing positive economic trends. Only time will tell if gloomier days are on the horizon given the slowdowns of the other major world economies.
It’s hard to time the bottom of the market, but with rates this good, we are biased towards locking.
A better than expected April jobs report is further evidence of the “Goldilocks scenario” that our economy continues to flourish in – albeit one that complexes many financial experts. With no near-term threat of inflation as well as improving data on productivity and manufacturing, the U.S. is experiencing the greatest recovery in many of our lifetimes. Today’s job report supported the current administration’s belief that the combination of lowered taxes and less restrictive regulation would stimulate the entrepreneurial spirit of American business owners. It is hard to argue against this position at the moment.
There were 263,000 jobs created in April, well above estimates of 180,000 to 200,000. The unemployment rate fell to an almost 50-year low at 3.60% (WOW!). With wage inflation coming in lower than expected, bonds reacted favorably to this report and stocks surged.
Setting aside the myriad of potential issues impacting the market, which include Brexit, the 2020 election, and China-US trade tension, the talk for the moment is the near-perfect market conditions of the U.S. is economy right now. As a rising stock market is a strong vote of confidence for U.S. consumption, we are seeing an increase in home buying activity as well as other financing activity. With rates still not too far off historical lows, it should be a good home buying season.
With the 10-year Treasury range-bound, we are biased toward locking in rates given the positive economic reporting and comments from the Fed this week about their concerns that inflation may be transitory.
The highly watched Monthly Jobs Report put to rest concerns about a slowing economy as the report beat estimates with 196,000 jobs created versus 177,000 expected.
This data should put to rest for now fears on a looming recession and thus help boost stocks and slightly lower bond yields. Unemployment remained at a multi-decade low of 3.80% and hourly earnings rose to 3.20% year over year from February (which is bond-friendly as wage inflation remains tame). The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) remained unchanged at 63.20%.
In other good news, the yield curve steepened. The potential flattening of the curve was a major concern just a few weeks ago, as that would be a sign of impending recession. However, a positive sloping yield curve is an indicator of a healthy outlook for the economy. Also, China and U.S. trade talks appear to be going well for the moment which has also helped stocks move higher. However, concerns remain as global economic growth has slowed in Europe, China, and Japan as central bankers continue to provide massive stimuli to their respective economies to spur growth. Finally, a Brexit deadline is looming in what is turning out to be a very complicated matter. So far, the markets have not been spooked by a no-deal Brexit, but that could change as the deadline approaches.
Here in the U.S., low rates have spurred home buying and refinances. We recommend taking advantage of the low interest environment because if the U.S. economy continues to surge, the Fed rate hike conversation will be back on the table. With this thought in mind, we remain biased toward locking-in interest rates at these very attractive levels, especially with the strong jobs report confirming no recession and the positive chatter regarding U.S. and China relations coming out of Washington.